Politicians

Who wants to make a career as a politician? What skills do they have? What motivates them? Who wants to spend decades in an office building with meeting rooms? Suppose you are in Montana or Idaho and are public minded, and here is where you go, or even a more plain office block building built in the 1900s. There the passionate Republicans can debate for days and days about acceptable ways to execute criminals or perform abortions. Or to ban the clinics in some technical manner, making the abortions more or less impractical. The abortion is only a bus ride to Seattle and back, but that itself is mostly impossible.

If I had the inclination to go into politics, I would tackle some practical matter for one or two terms, such as trash, and be done with it. Even there, you get people on the right or left to oppose NEW IDEAS, sometimes together.

The people out there is sparsely populated states have the same tasks as in the populated East. Police, city utilities, highway patrol, flooding and all the practical matters of life. The Kansans had to finally deal with their penny pinching Republicans and collect funds to take care of mounting problems. I admit that when Republicans are forced to deal with a practical problem, they can do it. I also admit that Democrats can also solve those same problems, but perhaps with more spending and debt. They want to fix it RIGHT, for the long term. The Republicans, however, are  more likely to be buddies with the contractors and play golf with them.

In middle of the road states you get the pendulum effect. The right merely has to cut taxes and spending for as long as possible. They never have to solve problems that cost money. They have to do things  they were voted to do: stop abortion, stop gay marriages, stop liberals. This costs nothing! Well, actually costs a lot, in the form of social problems and crime that follows. But the voters do  not see the connection.

Then in the middle of the road states the Democrats take over for 4-8 years and fix the stuff the Republicans refused to fix.

As an effective use of taxed money, politics is not the solution that spends the least money. They rarely use trained professionals, such as city managers who actually do know how to do public spending. Those type of managers do not get involved in social programs, only remotely, such as providing housing.

But there are forward thinkers, and eager young people launch into a career to push medical marijuana or wind power or some other thing. I guess there is a place for them. In many ways a dictatorial system such as China is better equipped to deal with practical problems: roads, infrastructure, health care, dams, waterways, harbors, airports etc etc. They also have allowed capitalism to enter in the form of manufacturing. This makes us dependent on them and war less likely.

I don't need to think about being a politician. I could only be and adviser. Where I live, they would not vote for an outsider and an atheist.

Lock Up Trump already!

I'm allowed to say that, because I have no power to lock him up. Crowds of simple working class folk who seem to be threatened by immigrants, democrats, healthcare, lack of jobs without a college degree etc etc. seem to think it's OK for the president to incite a crowd to physically threaten opponents who have different political views.

This was what went on at Grand Rapids. It is sad to see that the supporters do not see a difference in MSNBC or Saturday Night Live making fun of him, criticizing his politics and making conclusions about his crooked business practices and then Trump's behavior. The most powerful man on the planet suggesting treason and asking Adam Schiff to resign is entirely different. We call it bullying at this point but it is on the verge of becoming illegal.

The Uninhabitable Earth

The Mueller report release is the topic of the day, although the Trump camp has started another attack on Obamacare. The 2020 election is coming and the Green New Deal has brought the environment slightly to the news. However, most liberals see the main task is getting rid of Trump first.

Here in the prairie we suffered flooding that was the result of a bomb cyclone. Violent weather and excessive rain are thought to be a consequence of warming.

I picked up a book on the climate change issues and politics, David Wallace-Wells’ best seller The Uninhabitable Earth. In this book you can find all our climate related problems catalogued. However, my main interest was in the chapter Crisis Capitalism. Rather than actually focus on capitalism as a factor, it is a list of behavioral economics factors. Psychologists have now studied for decades how we make economic decisions. Israeli scholars Tversky and Kahneman started the ball rolling and came up with the terms to describe our “rule of thumb” behaviors when given choices.

This behavior is related to climate, because our response follows those rules of thumb.  Most people resisted the idea initially, of human caused warming and carbon dioxide effects. Anchoring, ambiguity and other behaviors are at work. When faced with uncertainty, we tend to react in such a way as to minimize loss. We are programmed to recognize possible loss and avoid it. Winning is good, but loss is what guides our behavior. Somehow it is not working in the face of climate change. David Wallace-Wells stated that we treat it as a riddle, something not understandable by the average person. He does not list conspiracies, but many people have started thinking of the government and its published science as merely as a conspiracy. Alex Jones and Breitbart capitalize on this, The Heritage Foundation actually publishes misinformation.

David Wallace-Wells also mentions the bystander effect (let us see what others do!). Optimism bias and pessimism bias are both active. The latter leads to defeatism. We cannot do anything! The planet is too big, nature is too big, it does stuff we cannot control, so why try doing anything? 

Others think politics is useless for any change, as lobbyists control politics rather than voters. The internet and its manipulations in social media adds another item to things we can’t fight. Others have pointed out that leftist dictatorships, such as China, have more power to change things quickly if they wish. Some writers point this out and a label, “shock doctrine” is used by Naomi Klein.

Young people without children are more likely to be affected by peer pressure to do something in their personal lives. They can choose where to live and work. Middle aged people are unlikely to change anything at all until the children have left the house. Much of our rich lifestyle comes directly out of burning fossil fuel. We are reaping the benefits of the energy spent somewhere else on the planet and sent to us as food and products. Just the shipping of cheaply made goods from Asia is a big energy drain. That fuel is cheap diesel oil, so it does not add to the price of goods. Unless you tax it.

People are drawn to prophets and preachers. Some will respond to charismatic speakers rather than science. I myself have supported people who have this skill, fully knowing that the prophets are simplifying things for the common man. Al Gore, however, is not a favorite, I do not really like the politicians who have taken up the challenge. Millionaires sometimes feel guilty for the wealth they have collected and start global initiatives through their charities.

The economic impacts of climate change will eventually  become a nagging everyday item. People will eventually be dulled by it. However, small investments now will prevent even bigger changes later on. We are not quite sure how the free market will help things. It probably won’t. It will just be a fight for every little patch of earth we own.

Finally: a little dark humor to end this piece.

He could have gotten a dog or run for president

Now it finally came out. Trump is just an old man with nothing to do. He wanted some people, any people, to like him. He found his crowd.

But we could all have got off easier if he had just gotten a dog. He rambled on about dogs in his El Paso speech. But, if he had gotten that German shepherd, that dog would have liked him. Dogs are bred that way. That dog would have saved us from a lot of misery.

Trump is the Republican Brand now

Having stuck to low taxes and less government for decades now, the Republicans are now fully behind Trump. They have not grabbed national attention in previous election years, and the politicians realize the facts: they themselves will get the maximum votes if Trump is on the ticket. It does not matter if he wins or not. The people fired up about "foreigners" and "the wall" as well as repealing all Obama did are the ones that get them voted in. Not just in red states but borderline states as well, and states with one senator from each party. Our governor ran on Trumpian ”less regulation” and less government issues. He also erased all benefits the state was providing illegal aliens. We allowed them some semi-official papers and healthcare.

The RNC decided not to have any primary challengers to achieve their goal. And it will make it easier for them to work with Trump in whatever time he has left. I believe impeachment is coming, but perhaps just rolling to full force in late 2020. This would be perfect for Democrats as well. They may lose a few seats in the house 2020 or hold on to their own, but it will give them something to do for Oct, Nov and Dec of 2020 and the new Democrat coming in taking over. First, bring it to near impeachment by election and then use two months to bring Trump to a halt.

Shut Down Not Going Anywhere for Trump

Trump will have very little to brag about after his proposal. He may offer some temporary relief for DACA children, but nothing permanent. But Trump can't deport them all either, too costly. So he really has nothing to bargain with. As it is, the courts have put DACA on hold for at least a year. The Trump directive to erase it was not legal.

Trump may declare an emergency and order the wall built. Almost nothing will happen on that for the two years he has left.

His defense of election dirty deeds is going badly. Cohen will testify and set any remaining issues straight. Then the rest of his term will be a battle fighting an actual impeachment.

A president polling 39% approval and that hanging over him cannot win a 2020 election.

Congress also will do almost nothing, though some solution to the shut down will come in a month or so. The country is too crippled past that to operate. And Democrats will have proven all those officials and bureaucrats were necessary.

One thing the news have sort of missed is that neither Trump or Mitch care that the government is shut down. Trump is free to travel and act normally while his staff is not paid. Mitch on the other hand is running his own experiment to cut down Big Government. He does not care what it causes.

The world simplified: it must be a conspiracy!

I touched upon conspiracies a few times earlier. The column addressed common beliefs.
Americans and conspiracy

I also had a column on our tribal view of leadership:
Tribal age views of life

Looking a little deeper into this thing, there is a benefit to thinking up reasons "somebody is out to get you." When societies were developing, people had to adjust to living with a number of others and to be wary of any threat. We looked at others and tried to recognize patters of behavior to categorize people as friend or enemy. It did not actually matter if a few neutrals were classified as enemy, just to be on the safe side. Once we had sorted things out, we could go about our business more calmly.

Trump voters tend to be these people that simplify things in this manner. Trump himself does not bother learning details of things. He quickly decides if it is with him or against him.

Democrats do something and they get angry. There must be some bigger force behind this phenomenon. Let's blame Hillary! Or even George Soros!

We live our lives by rules of thumb. We make quick decisions. Blaming something on a conspiracy categorizes it. It no longer needs to be thought about. Generally we make these generalizations with little evidence. They can be adjusted a  little, but the Trump voter rarely completely changes his mind on any matter.

It's been found that people that believe in conspiracies also tend to believe in the supernatural. Both supply a simplified explanation to things unexplainable otherwise. When the belief becomes overwhelming, or a fear of conspiracies, the people no longer function normally in their daily lives. So a small amount of suspicion helps save you from harm, but too much can take over your life.

Science and technology are other things that come under suspicion, especially if a government is involved. These have been discussed in previous columns.

Everything going according to plan

We Democrats sometimes have a hard time grasping just what Trump supporters wanted to achieve. There may not be a wall, but he certainly took a swipe at everything global. We apparently do not need the world, even if they make all our socks shoes and underwear. But to summarize the big picture: disrupt everything as much as possible if the federal government or UN or even NATO is involved.

So now that the government is shut down, he takes this opportunity to freeze federal wages for all of 2019 once they come back. This is because (Fox News, Trumpists) "the government does not do anything." Only the functions of border security, immigration and a few infrastructure jobs are needed. Oh, there might be a few other things, but they do not affect Trump's main activity.

So people that work for NIH, Center For Disease Control, all government funded medical research, climate change and all them nasty things that are too difficult for the Trump voter to understand, they are not needed. Maybe in their old age, but that is too far to plan ahead.

Stocks going down? No problem, Trump base does not own any and Trump's own wealth is tied up in real estate, which survives recessions.

Money

There is no gold standard anymore, so money is basically a way to exchange goods and services and to plan for the future on personal and public levels. I got trained in science, so materials are more real than money for me. We will eventually come to a point where wealth per person can only go down or stay at a level if population stays steady.

Money only has meaning if we think there is a future and the money is still worth something. For this reason people want the near future to be very much like the present. If there is a drastic change in the future, the cash you stashed away is not worth as much as you thought. Both right and left wingers resist huge change. This is why many Democrats are centrists. They get lobbied and the lobbyists want things to stay the same or improve for their issue.

When you go to the bank for a loan or you save for retirement the money is most closely related to material. Only people with huge amounts of "collateral" (things: real estate, factories, hotels, airlines etc) are trusted with this imaginary money to spend, build etc etc. Your investments are most likely in stocks or CD accounts, so these also relate to actual property. The bank holds your money, but it can lend it to reliable customers who then convert  the borrowed money to real things. Shops, stores, trucks, retail goods etc. Your money is tied to physical objects.

The future is the tricky part. You have to try to imagine the future. So does your government. They have to plan for social security payments, Medicare etc. All this is based on the calculated work force and the GDP and the GDP per person. You think your money is worth something in the future. If the entire population or earth were to disappear in say 20 years, the value of your money would quickly go down to almost nothing. The cash (with ongoing inflation) would exist for a short while, as we would all disappear sooner or later, but would still need to eat and function for 20 years. It could be something like an asteroid that we knew was going to wipe us out. Or drought from climate change etc. etc.

Back to the present, the working class person that gets by, just, understands quite well that money is not wealth, and work no longer is worth much. Getting a paycheck and spending it by the next paycheck is a very real state. Work is simply converted to goods and to pay the rent. These people are unlikely to own anything more than the furniture etc. as well as a car. With maybe a car loan.

Economics is an odd field that seems to be too big for its pants. It thinks it can overrule material things. Libertarians have an undying faith in free market. This book is otherwise OK but since it is so optimistic it has no Plan B.

I've read a few bits, not spending my dollars on it. It will have no bearing on my decisions even if i read it.

 Individual situations, the opposite end compared to  GDP or national levels is the focus of Freakanomics. Famous quotes deal with items like "why do drug dealers still live with their mom and dad?"

This Michael Lewis book is my favorite. It tells how individuals calculate value on personal issues and decide. It also describes some bigger things where we have decision makers make decisions, but based on too small a sample population or other group. We try to do statistics in our head. We are very conservative when faced with a situation where we could lose. We go out of our way to prevent loss. The two Israeli psychologists who worked on this economics issue are profiled in the book. The economics outlined relates to consumers, marketing, insurance etc.

Trump the failed President

Trump gave a speech at his inauguration. It was well written, by someone, and outlined his "America first" policy well. After that he has failed as a communicator. Sure, he tweets:

The tweets worked fine during the campaign. The job of the president is somewhat different. He needs to convey an understanding of whatever topic he is commenting on. He only tweets to get some "likes" from his voters of 2016. And to see his text. He loves to see it.

He has attacked caravans of immigrants and refugees. He attacks daily some target. Attack is his only defense. The Senate is also stalling. Interrogating Comey, they centered on Hillary emails. Hillary is not president and she is not going to jail. There is not a jury in the country that could give her a fair trial.  And the Senate tactic is merely stalling.

Trump can speak, but most what he says is captured from Fox pundits or experts from the White House feeding him whatever he is able to read in a half a page of text. He reads what "sounds good." Like many Republicans he attempts to change "climate change" into air quality. We have good air quality because we scrub exhaust from power plants. Soot does not float over the landscape. Mercury does, as it is vaporized at that temperature. The air is "clean" and carbon dioxide is good for plants. In fact, it is not harmful yet, but current plants have evolved to deal with current levels. Many other factors affect plant growth, and plants grown too fast are low on nutrients from the ground that we need in out diet.

In any case, the point is that it is the CO2 that is bad, no matter how clean our emissions. There is no clean coal. Nearly all politicians know this. I am not sure about Trump. The explanation is too long for him to bother following for five minutes. He knows he won't support taxes for coal or tax credit support for alternative energy. Trump made up his mind about most issues long ago. When he tweeted from his office or couch to Obama years ago, and before that. He has never changed his mind about anything. Most of the items relate to Trump and his wealth in some manner, and he has never taken the initiative to run any of his businesses in any other manner.

So, yes he is dumb, but not too dumb to grasp quickly what is good for Trump in any issue. Trump, not the Trump presidency or the USA. He does not even care at this point that he will lose a 2020 election. The rare conditions that gave him several rust belt states in 2016 no longer exist.