Friday, December 27, 2019

Books on our bookstore shelf

I have a couple of books on the middle class or working class, Rachel Maddow's last book (Putin, oil, fracking etc.). But I was curious about the last ten years or so in US politics. How did the two parties get to the point where nothing bipartisan will pass? The first book was by a favorite author, but pretty much ended with the Bush era. I am in fact looking for exactly this kind of book, but it should cover at least the first Trump year.


On to the next book I picked off the shelf:


The book covers an interesting topic, a bit narrow. I guess the point there is that we in fact need the FBI, and they do a job, which generally has little to do with politics. But in this case the interference to the election was real. You would need to read this and the Mueller report together. On a side note, it is comical that the right finds the FBI alarming now, where the hippies of the 70s lumped the FBI with the rest of the "pigs," but that was of course before 9-11. We had no major terrorism.

Next book. The author is labeled a pundit. Had to pass, one sided.


The next one was interesting too, but would I finish it? Ian Haney López is a law professor at Berkeley.


The one I bought, Pitchfork Populism,  had to do with the Trump era, and Trump appears to pop up on at least every other page. We find that Trump base is about 20% of voters. The rest are traditional Republicans and independents. The book cites many studies of various sorts, including studies on young voters, media, smart phones etc etc. It is written from a somewhat academic view point, so I suppose a Trumpist could read it as well.  But probably will not. it does not really provide them any ammo for the next election, or to ridicule or to start new conspiracy theories.


Kane states: Trump “is actually a weak, insecure, self-obsessed, delusional, disloyal, emotionally diminutive figure who hyperextends himself to overcompensate for his personal faults, ineptitude, and intellectual impotence”. Continuing: “A growing chorus believes that Trump lacks the dignity, character, civility, ethics, judgment, intellect, discipline, and composure, to lead a conga line, let alone the greatest nation on the planet.”

One more book I had to get on line:



This is a book about the Internet and politics. It is not a book that will tell you why Trump won, for example. That would require a more detailed look at the people who voted for him and their views.

With that out of the way, you do learn about how the message is spread nowadays. Even if the voters got the message from TV, the Internet still had a role in passing along the messages learned.

Whether you believe the studies and conclusions is up to you. They are explained in enough detail that you do not need to go read the original papers.

As an example, the message of the phrase "deep state" starts around page 148 and goes on to page 158. Other similar phrases continue from there on (draining the swamp etc.).

We have to give credit to Trump handlers, Foxnews et al. for feeding these short phrases to the public. What part took them for real, and how the right and left react to the media feed is examined. it was not all that sophisticated, mostly repeating a thing over and over until it became a fact in the mind of voters. Sometimes you have to tell people what they already suspect and it is less of an effort to convince the right group. If Trump says is is fake news, many believe.

I guess you have to summarize Hillary's failures as two:  lacking the short messages the right produced (though she warned us of Trump and Putin) and also failing to address the voters about their job and other needs. Healthcare was a touchy thing, as Obamacare was still ongoing, and actually quite expensive for those that did not get any subsidy.

I keep telling myself that few of the Democrats have really grasped Twitter, and it may be too late anyway. The Trump base of some 20% and many others who voted for him are thoroughly convinced they are right. We in fact cannot tell what Trump's deeds are doing now and in the long run, other than in agriculture and trade. Jobs is very up in the air (the definition of "job" is vague) and you would only find out in eight years if he helped you out. It seems that the tax cut, in any case, was small for anyone in the biggest income group.

Have not perused the book on racism and nationalism yet. The index is good, so if you have favorite topics, you can read the sections on that. This book seems to be the only real well researched one on recent elections and the Internet. You do not need to read every page.

My conclusion is that the majority of people who buy and read books are left leaning, but there may be a bit of a rise among Trumpists for a short while. Pro Trump books are a good third or more of the books on the shelf. I got as close to buying a Trump book as I will ever get. I do not want him to be selling books, as much as I like books and want to promote anti-Trump writers. The faster we are done with Trump the better. We can then deal with the white working class a little better, without a populist messing up what they actually want to say. Many state that "Trump speaks how I feel," but there may many topics where they disagree. Trump has capitalized on the fears of the white working class, that they will lose power.

Tuesday, December 24, 2019

Generalities and Echo Chambers

The impeachment process is unfinished. The country is more divided than ever. The Trumpists are no longer open to any facts, we will just wait to see the next election. If Trump wins, he will also lose the senate. He is then open to more impeachments. There will be more and more Ukraines.


The general belief of the right is that "government is broken" is felt more by the right and the libertarians. The libertarians, because nearly everything the government does is too much, it should just concentrate on infrastructure and keeping us independent as far as water and other resources are concerned.

The right wing in general, though, thinks it is broken, because the few things they want government to do, such as the Trump Wall, are blocked by democrats and judges.  Democrats want more neutral judges, but otherwise think government is fixable.

The left and most of media is anti-Trump. There may be some behind the scenes activity that might be labeled deep state, but it is not as deep as Trumpists think. Yes, the government may be spying on you, but blame Bush. He started Homeland Security.

The echo chamber on the right consists of following Foxnews, Russian controlled social media, One America News Network and the like. They are chasing week after week after "dirt" on democrats in Ukraine. Because Putin directed Trump there. To save his reputation, even if he never was aware of Russian tactics in 2016.

If you want to follow what happened in Ukraine, there is an excellent timeline at Just Security.

LINK

Basically, none of the push to get the Ukraine presidents (first one, then the current one) to announce that they are investigating Joe and Hunter Biden was happening till 2019. All that happened when it was clear Biden would be running. Prior to that there was an effort to explain the 2016 election interference coming from the Ukraine rather than Russia. A thought Putin planted with Trump and Trump was more than willing to promote.

ECHO CHAMBER

The worst part of life on the Internet that is mostly trash and you need to learn to use it properly.  Many, possibly most, people do not understand the Internet. Asking or searching "vaccines cause autism" and "vaccines do not cause autism" gives different results.

But you may not even be searching an issue, the info just comes right at you through Facebook and Twitter. You can use those just for close friends, but even if you just express opinions to a small group of friends, the media still feed you stuff that agrees with what you already think. This is how they get advertisement money, as every link or other item you follow from Facebok gets them income. Click click click. That is their only mission. They do not want to disagree with you.

As a result of this, you are unlikely to get info that is correct, but disagrees with what you have already stated. The social media do not care about facts.

There is a limited part of the Internet that is somewhat reliable. Outside of politics, Wikipedia is very reliable. Google searches that give you mostly published data (it could still be left or right slanted) is Google Scholar.

Sunday, December 8, 2019

The Post Trump Republican Party


The Republican party has finally achieved something. They lowered taxes under Trump. That may not be what the GOP of the early 2000s was after, because they wanted to cut public spending. But this is the new party. They only want to cut taxes, not spending or deficits. They can achieve things in 2 or 4 year runs. They will be looking for a leader after Trump that has some of the appeal that he had for the working classes. Global warming, coal, foreigners, jobs, taxes. all that carries over from the Trump era. But they will be looking hard for a politician who deals with the media the way Trump did. I presume Twitter will continue. Trump is supreme there, Democrats just add some spice once in a while, and the  Pelosi "don't mess with me" message works in the same way Trump tweets do. But none of them are willing to use Twitter daily. Well, maybe AOC does, not many.

The party is unlikely to ever return to "old Republicans" such as Romney.

It will then be a different world for Republicans, trying to hang on to battleground states like Wisconsin and Michigan. The momentum is lost in Wisconsin, with state internal politics going towards Democrats lately.

The tea party and libertarian wing will always be there. But cutting benefits will not go well with the new Trump era "independents" voting for their party. With any small recession even, the new right will be feeling the effects of Trump era rules on food stamps and other benefits. Farm aid went mostly to big farms and ranches. The small farm suffered under Trump, bankruptcies went up.

The party will survive, but I believe much of the populist appeal will go with Trump. Whether Mitch goes or not, he never had the same appeal. He was simply a Trump enabler.

With the electoral college remaining, the Republicans will still get a president once in a while. The states will hang on to the right of assigning all electoral votes to the winner. Gerrymandering has been blessed by the Trump supreme court. Still, the party will not grow.

Democrats, on the other hand, will have to expand past healthcare. keep or fix the healthcare we have, but move to favor jobs and business. It can be the Warren way, with new energy project, infrastructures etc. But first you have to get a presidency and a senate. The contracts will go to private corporations so watch corruption carefully. The deep state accusations will continue. Even if they are largely fantasy.

The business of politics will continue through lobbying, that we have not been able to stop. Lobbyists can work with either party. Lobbyists have more power than the uneducated voters that went for Trump.

Friday, November 1, 2019

They Hate Taxes -- and Government!



I have gone to demonstrations at the state capitol for the past few years. I know those groups and the type of liberals there pretty well. I also drive around the state doing outdoor activities. I see the other half. It is probably 50% here, or even more in rural counties. In the nation it is some 40%. These are the people that voted for Trump. But they are not going away. They work minimum wage, and you can get by with that in the middle of the land. Rent a one-bedroom apartment or hang on to the little house you inherited. It has a one car garage. The husband leaves the pick-up outside in front of it. It may even be full of junk. This family makes enough to pay a little federal tax. State tax is maybe 2.5%, but there may be a low limit where you do not pay that.

They get something for that state tax. They get roads, they get police and fire while driving around the state. The city collects a tax as well, and property tax goes to pay for public schools. Very few of these people can afford home schooling with a parent staying home. That is for their pastor’s wife, and for a few big shots in their church.

At the gas station I heard a few of these people complaining about the new ¼ cent sales tax added to take care of roads. No bike paths, parks or extra fluff is to be paid out of this. It is for cars. Yet they complain. “What happened to all that other tax I pay to the city?”

It would be fruitless to explain city finances to these people. They do not care. It is fruitless to explain about immigrants and jobs. They do not take any of the jobs that you would take, unless it is mowing or roofing that you do at minimum wage. Outdoor jobs.

In general they do not care about politics. Sometimes they do follow AM radio, where the all the talk can be summarized as “government is bad and it will take away your guns.” But they would not be able to explain city funding, city politics, city officials and services. “I don’t need any services. Just the state park sticker so I can go camping, boating and fishing.”

They buy lottery tickets. It’s like cigarettes and beer, it’s a habit. But even there they are suspicious of the “millions disappearing” into those “Democrat politicians’ pet projects.”  Schools and nature. “We have enough trees already!”

Often, without much knowledge, there is a kind of resentment of someone who is “getting something for free.” They actually are envious of those who are poor enough to be on Medicaid. “That old black guy has COPD, he earned it. Why should I pay for his oxygen tanks?”

The bottom line is that there are millions of people out there who do vote, but get very few facts. Even if they did, they have a mostly libertarian bent in politics. Trump is not the last to use this. We will need to give them something. The infrastructure jobs that would give them a benefit, for example. They may not even know that the contractor they work for is paid by that awful FEDERAL government.

Healthcare

Healthcare does not seem to play a big role in these people's lives. Some may owe a lot to hospitals, mainly for injuries. They seem to mostly avoid doctors.

This means that they will vote for whatever candidate seems to cost them the least. Many may see NOT buying health insurance as a great choice.

Democratic candidates will not win votes based on healthcare. They may eventually be positive towards it, once they have the coverage. Especially if they have kids.

Friday, October 4, 2019

Trump Will Be Impeached

This is not a political year. In local politics there were no real elections. Yet, since 2016, since I had shortly moved to a great plains state, I can't ever forget that at least half my neighbors voted for Trump. The Republicans I can understand, in the sense that they never vote for a Democrat. Never. They could possibly stay home and not vote.

But here we are. The president made a quid pro quo deal with Ukraine.


The simple minded man stated on the white house lawn this week that he will keep doing this, in the name of seeking out corruption.

I just came to the awful conclusion: maybe Trump is as dumb as he seems. He seems to be the typical conspiracy theory follower. He is not qualified to run the country. Is this high crimes and misdemeanors or just a flaw, like a physical flaw that one might have but still function, more or less? He seems to justify the principle that what is good for Trump is good for the USA. All else is treason.

Hannity releases a conspiracy theory, perhaps distilled from Alex Jones or Breitbart. A week or two go by. Next we know, Trump is directing foreign policy by this. Joe Biden and Hunter Biden were in Ukraine at the same time, there must be a conspiracy!

The other part of Trump doing all these things is to do with people surrounding him not ever disagreeing with him. Their only job is to prop up his ego and flatter him. Sometimes they try to spin things he said to lessen the damage.

Board members and directors are hired by corporations to look good in a PR sense. They put pictures of them in brochures etc. It is sort of impossible that there is not some corruption in the Ukraine, a developing country. The CEO of the company Hunter Biden worked for actually had a seat in the Ukraine bureaucracy giving essentially himself permits. But this is not a matter Hunter Biden let alone Joe Biden was involved with. Board members meet a couple of times a year to see that a company is run properly. An accountant report from an independent agency shows the business. Stockholders get all this info. This and a few bigger changes is ALL that board members do. They are not there to bribe or help a business along in some illegal manner.

Trump will be impeached. Trump votes will say "the Democrats got away with it again, the Bidens are crooked." And the Senate will vote to keep Trump in power to the end of 2020. Or nearly so.

The evidence for Biden blame is weak, other than the mentioned Burisma CEO himslef. NBC has a good story on it:

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/there-s-no-evidence-trump-s-biden-ukraine-accusations-what-n1057851

ALTERNATIVE INTERPRETATION

Thinking about Trump voters, who get their info from Foxnews and Breitbart, there is a possible explanation of what Trump is doing.  He wants to be in the press, fake or not:

1 He gets Democrats and the press outraged. This just plays into his hand, because his base LOVES him trolling the Democrats

2 He is planting the seeds of his 2020 message: Biden is a politician. All politicans are crooked, but Biden especially working as vice president was able to obtain personal gain in connection with foreign contacts, After all, Hillary did! (according to them: uranium One). It is his launch of the Biden version of "but her e-mails." It now becomes "But Biden and Ukraine."


Sunday, July 21, 2019

American Carnage

A book on the Trump era by  Tim Alberta is worth a look, to understand what we are heading for in the 2020 election. My prediction is that if we have Biden running, he is going to look weak against Trump. Facts are out the window. It is all about appearances.

Guardian intoduces the book with these words:

Trump surveyed the rusty hinterland of what used to be God’s own country and vowed that “this American carnage stops right here and stops right now”. Since he lies whenever his mouth moves, the opposite was true: the carnage – of constitutional norms, international accords and rules of civilised conduct – was about to begin and for Trump, who says at one point in Alberta’s book: “I fucking love this job!”, it has been a gleeful carnival, an opportunity to foment an almost cosmic chaos.

Link to buy the book:
Book

Wednesday, June 26, 2019

Farming issues

I complained last time about economists ignoring farming in general audience books of how the world works. There are other books that have lots of facts in a different manner:


The book is also sold under the name
What's Really Happening to Our Planet?: The Facts Simply Explained

One page points out the soil issue which should become a major issue as the climate changes:


More on this topic, and the reasons for organic farming is explained in another book. Basically we kill all the organic matter in the soil, including bacteria and other life, between crops. If you leave that matter in the ground, it prevents erosion and also retains water. Natural soil retains water.


it is the combined use of farming chemicals and leaving bare soil that causes that. No till agriculture leaves some stubs over the winter and helps retain soil, and can be done with "chemical" farming as well.

A related video:


Tuesday, June 25, 2019

A little economics

Much of farming and ranching has to do with politics. It is a complex story, having to do with lobbyists, farm bills, industry related to it (Monsanto, food processing), subsidies, crop failure issues etc. The farmer in the prairie tends to be Republican. I'm not going to get into the details of that, other than to mention that their main intent is to keep state money in the state and to direct as much of federal tax collected as possible back to the state. They understand the need for some federal control and support, such as is flooding and river issues. But still, they have not found Democrats addressing their concerns.

Aside from a recent interest in the workings of politics (not so much politicians), I have gathered a few books on economics. Very few of them mention agriculture. In the US, only some 2-3% make a living producing our food at farms, ranches and orchards. The more broadly defined "farm industry," which includes the farmers and ranchers as well as some support networks, employs 11% of the work force. If economists look at food at all, it is a measure of poverty. If you cannot eat the quantity of starch, protein etc. one needs daily, you may be close to the poverty level. One of my books tells that Japan eats enough food that if they were to raise all their own food, they would need five times the land they have. Many Asian countries are in that situation. Whether rich or poor, they have to export goods to eat.

What we all do for work:

Some of that work is in fact in rural areas, but is not farming. For example, there are seed plants, chemical plants and ethanol plants. Some food processing takes place in rural towns. These are for example in Western Kansas, where there are slaughter houses.


I was out West bicycling with a group. We saw many trains with a few hundred coal cars. Many of the rocky mountain states have coal. It comes from Wyoming, Montana and states South of these. Much of your electricity is still made from coal. It is one of the cheap sources of fuel. For agriculture, the fuel is mostly oil or ethanol based.



Other trains bring containers from the West. A good part of them contains consumer goods from Asia. Much of the clothing and personal items of the farmer and rancher working on the prairie. Why do we need to haul it so far?






It has to do with wages. If you make Nike shoes at 3 dollars a hour in Asia, compared to 15 dollars an hour in the US, the shipping cost becomes clear. If a pair of Nikes costs 50 dollars, the labor is a small part of that (it does not take an hour to make shoes by machine or even partly manually.) But the shipping actually is a long process, and many hands are employed getting your shoes to the store. My guess is that the shipping is equal to the costs of labor to make the shoe, and not anywhere near the cost of making it here. The stores and distributors take their major cuts.

Another way of looking at the costs is to assume the 3 dollar worker in Asia (Vietnam) makes 10 pairs of shoes at 3 dollars an hour. The US worker makes the same 10 pairs of shoes at 15 dollars an hour. Therefore, it must cost less than 12 dollars to ship the 10 pairs across the ocean. The shipping within the US does not enter into the comparison, as you would have to ship it to distribution centers in any case.


How shoes are made: Video 1
A more traditional method: Video 2 

Big Things are still made in the USA. International Harvester used to make the combines for harvesting, but a series of mergers with heavy equipment makers has left the company with a product but all new names. The combine is explained here:
LINK: Combine

The harvester is now Case IH: https://tractors.fandom.com/wiki/Case_IH

Red tractors are no longer made in Iowa or Illinois, the plants have moved to Wisconsin:  News story


The cows were everywhere when we bicycled. Wheat was here and there, where irrigation was not needed. 






And corn was common where center pivot irrigation was used. Corn is another story. Corn and soybean are a major source of animal feed. To feed one American, about two acres of land is needed. Those Asian countries want to raise animals, but with the shortage of land in Asia, we export feed to them. Much of out food is made from the agricultural raw materials by a few giants such as Conagra.






Wednesday, June 12, 2019

Patriotism

Donald Trump has his base supporting him and those 40% will vote for him no matter what. But there are states that still are borderline. Given a 5% error in polling, the states of the rust belt still matter.
This is where patriotism matters. Trump is in a position to act patriotic and strong. His tweets and acts support a strong effort, though no military action. If Putin took over Ukraine, we would do nothing.

As it is, he appears patriotic in front of crowds, and there is some appeal to simple working class folks who celebrate Fourth of July with a bang. Baseball, hot dogs, apple pie and Chevrolet and all that. There is nothing wrong with being loyal to your country, to enlisting in the military, to feel good about your country. Provided we are in a situation where our military actions get the support of our allies.

The Democrats are in a position of weakness. Though Clinton got talked into some military action, he was a centrist. Hillary is history as well. Our trend is not to support nation building. We see the exporting of "democracy" as mostly a failed effort. Oil states rotate toward a dictatorship because the people in general do not own the land oil.

Our military efforts would be in support of our allies or toward stability in trouble spots, such as Kosovo. None our acts are seen by voters as "strong" or particularly patriotic. The Trumpsters, as I now understand, just want us to be boss in every situation. Negotiation is not seen as patriotic. We just want our way, they say. Trump is doing exactly that at least in appearance, and tweets. Basically he says fuck you to any foreigner, any unamerican party or view. We will go alone!

The Democrats tend to attend to matters more important at home: veterans, firefighters at 9-11 (as expressed by John Stewart to Congress recently). We go about it differently: less cheer leading.



Problems come from appearances. Trump appears patriotic to his fans. it is difficult to understand that most of them do not see it as a con. He represents them, whether he is sincere or not!

Bush was a rather useless president to start with. His golden opportunity was provided by Bin Laden. It is kind of sad we could only rise to the occasion when assaulted. But that is how things went. Bush was not as good as Trump at appearances, though Trump hugging a flag and Bush lading on an aircraft carrier amounts to the same. Just showmanship.

Trump's fight against "foreigners" and "China" or "Mexico" is seen as patriotic. This is a problem. We need to deal with immigrants in some manner, and the Democrats better get a clear message on that soon. Biden could use to his advantage that Obama deported 2.5 million illegals.

Trump plans big Fourth of July celebrations on 2019 and 2020. presidents normally do not participate. I hope the people will come to see that it is now  ALL ABOUT TRUMP. He is stealing our national holiday!