"Foreigners" are not a major problem in post pandemic USA

 

The Trump theme was that foreigners are our problem. China was a problem, all the way in China. The others were a problem here, invading our country and taking our jobs.

The numbers are now up a bit over 2020, mainly because there are now jobs again, now that the economy has largely recovered.

The Boeberts and the Marjories are screaming about the border problem because they have a few Trump era things that they need to cling to. That is how they got elected. VP Harris is to deal with the current problem, and she and the government will, but not by visiting the border. All that can be done by executive order.

And I guess they got their wish. And then they will complain anyway.

But frankly, there is nothing new to do. The methods have been the same for 20 years. Deporting is a bit of a cost. But even there, we cannot stop people traveling to the USA. We normally rely on some tourism for income. Some visitors overstay the visa and eventually are asked to leave or deported.

Problems facing the average American are now more to do with the nature of your job, leases, income, home prices, etc. Almost none of these have anything to do with Mexicans or others crossing the border. More likely you will need some of those to fix your roof when you are ready to sell your house. Also, all over the county, crime is up and gun violence is up. You don't need those guns against the illegals. They don't usually have them. It is your neighbor that has one.

Drugs? The Republicans are repeatedly blasting the "open borders" brings drugs into the US. The places where migrants cross lead to a lot of arrests, but not for drugs. The fentanyl comes in by car, and mostly with Americans. See the CATO institute story.

https://www.cato.org/blog/fentanyl-smuggled-us-citizens-us-citizens-not-asylum-seekers

We need to get the world working normally so we can have all our consumer goods for fixing up everything that broke in the past year. And we need China. We do not make much of the clothing and shoes and small end stuff.

Science and the non-college educated voter

Many things in the modern world bother the conservative voter. They are conservatives, so they do not adjust well to new ideas or new science. Even weights and measures have to be what they learned in school, no meters and kilograms. What they know of science is some buzz-words: hypothesis etc. But in general they don't get far with the arguments, and just turn away with suspicion. "That vaccine might kill me." Anthony Fauci has taken a lot of flak for us scientists lately.

He has to take a lot of questions about viruses and Covid. The CDC is the agency that deals with pandemics, though there are state level people that do most of the work. Read Michael Lewis's latest book The Premonition. Pandemics are tricky in that in the beginning there is virtually no information. Mandates are general, from the previous pandemic.

The vaccine end is entirely different. People in government provided funding, contracts and speeded up testing of tens of thousands of volunteers. Those volunteers, by and large, have the college degree. In college you learn to trust the experts, whether you studied science or not. In any case "the government" is not one large entity but experts that look at a smaller task and do cooperate.

But it is broader, the distrust. "Climate does not change now, because it did not before." Send your friend, or read the arguments here:

Climate Change

Fossil fuels are more complex than you thought, but there is a smoking gun. Burning that coal has an effect on carbon isotopes we find in the air.

Evolution is a "theory" so it too is suspect. On these matters the uneducated voter will send their kids to the pastor, who will explain that there may be evolution and all that, but God created life in the first place, so only minor changes tale place. The age of the earth is a more complicated issue. I think the pastor will not give a straight answere.

Amuse yourself with the Lenski affair, a debate between  professor Lenski and a creationist:

https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Lenski_affair

The main problem with science and the public is that the public sees things as black and white. Is it good for me or bad for me? Science has lots of things that require a more lengthy, grayer answer. The explanation may be too long, and starts to sound like the side effects list that is read out at the end of every prescription drug ad. There again the public will consult a trusted expert: their doctor. It's a little better than going to the pastor. And there are indeed issues with medicine today. There are many fantastic cures, but you have to be able to understand the benefit. And cost, the doctor may not know. You will need to talk to the hospital insurance people. The statistics for cures are available, and there are books for many diseases. But even in books, ask someone for a recommendation. Most books on vaccines at Amazon are written by antivaxxers. This one is not.

Pull-up Pants for 2024 Candidate?

 Trump gave a speech. It was the usual, the election was stolen and Biden is a terrible senile president. Well, I didn't actually listen to it. We all looked at Trump. He is wearing blue pull-up pants.

Under these he wears adult diapers. 

Trump does not actually need to say anything new. He did catch the people's attention in 2016 with his simple view of the world, with China at the focus of his hate and fear.

They do not have a candidate that will get anywhere near 45% of the popular vote for 2024. There is not even a chance to have another candidate rise to the occasion. This is simply what the Republicans are stuck doing. The voters will not move on for 2022, where Mitch and pals need all the votes they can get, or 2024. There is a small chance that Trump's diapers and other oddities will start adding up by 2024. That would be fortunate for the GOP. They need to move on and and go back to traditional taxes guns and abortions issues.

The voting itself will be affected by the Republican state laws. But it will not be enough to bring Trump back. All the gains will be in the House and Senate.

The US Constitution and Voting

 The US Constitution is less than 5000 words. Some paragraphs are really tightly written, but still leave some room for interpretation.

Oxford has a number of books on US politics. This one describes the Constitution in brief terms, but does point out the founding fathers and their thinking at the time.

Link:

U-S-Constitution-Short-Introduction-Introductions-ebook/dp/B079S9M7WJ/ref=pd_sim_9/134-8765157-6751848

The senators and congressmen were to be elected by the states. That means that mainly land owning white males were to vote. The expansion to all white males took place in the 1800s.

There is some more detail on the electoral college. The purpose of that was to vote, and then vote again by whatever rules they came up with if there was no clear winner.

So the problem we have now is that the Constitution has no guarantees on the right to vote. It clearly indicates the states have the power to run elections. There is some vague wording that suggests that congress together would decide elections, such as the day it is run, but it does not seem to imply much. This is exactly what the republicans are doing now. In the few hundred years we have run elections, some rough rules have appeared, such as "no poll tax." Women, and those who are 18, have special amendments, but it has been rather seldom that any rules were added.

If Congress decided to pass laws on voting rights, gerrymandering etc., the Supreme Court can always strike them down based on state rights.

Terminology: Let us dump these terms that the Republicans have wrangled to meaningless buzz words

 We can't do much about political correctness anymore. But other terms, all related to races, popped up during the Trump presidency. The ridiculing of these terms intended to make fun of people doing these things and in the case of antifa, a label intended to make Black Lives Matter and any resistance to white supremacism equally violent to their opponent.

The whole of resisting political correctness has expanded to memes that cover Mr Potatohead, Dr Seuss etc. etc. The right really has no argument against being politically correct, it just became a nudge nudge wink wink word for them.

In the pandemic, the political correctness of wearing masks became a target as well, there just was no catchy term for it yet. "Freedom."

The teaching of our history that includes slavery also has to be white washed according to the right. It is not right for right children in school to feel guilty for slavery and the America of the 1900s up to 1960 when segregation was the rule.

The implication of all this, for Republicans, is that blacks are indeed inferior, and that all foreigners are a lower class of people. "We will take a few geniuses from India for Silicon Valley, but that's it." They can't say these out loud in public or social media, but when they talk to each other, the buzz words help imply the meaning. The Karens of the world can go about their business unchallenged that way.

KAREN:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karen_(pejorative)

The Here and Now and the Future

              

THE HERE AND NOW

We've just had an election and departed with a near dictator (though he had the will, he did not have the skill). The foundations of our election were shaken.

The  few words there are in the constitution about elections came to a test. The founding fathers apparently did not trust us that much. There was an option in there of the lower house of Congress (very big of them to leave it to a group of politicians representing more of us, not the senate) deciding who will be president if the election was a mess. The Supreme Court really is not involved.

Following this lead giving the states great powers, Republicans in dozens of states are writing bills to stop the great masses from voting. Working class people these days, with weak unions, have to vote on a working day. It could be in their 12 hour work cycle or a 12 hour sleep cycle. Some lucky few will have a day off on Tue, but that person will be working Sat and Sun.

Other parts of the Georgia election bill put the (gerrymandered) ruling party in control of elections. No more county control, no more canvas boards with two Democrats and two Republicans to certify the election. the goal is to prevent the election from being certified when a Democrat wins.

Other than election tampering, Republicans will just refuse many measures at state level. We saw this with the pandemic. This will be the trend for the next 10-20 years if the Republican party survives. They really do not represent the country, but can rule as the minority party, or at least stop all progressive ideas.

THE FUTURE

The structure of America is such that there are many rural states. We grow a lot of the world's food, in some manner. We send soy bean animal feed to China. China has run out of land, and even more so, the successful industrial nations of South Korea and Japan. These countries and most of Europe have urban people running politics. It does not mean farmers are cut short, it just means they will get subsidies, but will have to follow liberal social ideas of city folks. City folks work as a collective for common good, whereas rural folk have a feel for community, but it is a county with a small population. They will know more of the families in the county than a city dweller of their neighbors. If the state is a red state, they have feelings of unity state wide.

The future will be somewhat more like South Korea, though never that populated. Our states will have cities of a million or more people, like Saint Louis, and the politics will slowly drift towards Democrats. The Democrats will make sure that states follow their lead in things like energy and transportation. The states will not get funding unless they approve some of these measures. Old principles on guns, abortion, religion will stay in those red states. The frustration the Trump voters had was largely to do with this trend. There was racism too, but most of them realized the trend is to go little by little to the left. So the red states will soon become centrist. We see this with places like Montana where there is one Democrat, Tester, in a red state.

I brought up South Korea, where I have visited. It has 52 million people and is about 100 000km2 in area. Both Nebraska and Kansas are just slightly smaller, in the 70-80 000 km2 range. But those states have 2 and 3 million people. You can see it will not be much different even if it were 10 million people, compared to South Korea. With mostly hilly areas, the farming is squeezed here and there along the bullet train rail lines and freeways. A city might be 600 000 people between rural areas, where the American city in the same setting would be about 200 000, with no high rise apartments. Here is a picture from a city a half hour train ride South of Seoul. I walked a mile South of the main belt line and rail line to take this photo. There are somewhere over 500 000 people there.

Hunting and Gathering in a Pandemic

 I shop at several stores, but have been avoiding my main grocery for the most part. If I go there are all, it will be before eight in the morning. Avoiding a virus requires a face mask. Mine is a KN95 that goes behind the ears, but as those ear strings often slip off, I have adjusted it with a velcro strap behind the head. I was wearing it when a granny with a slipping mask was reading cheeses in the dairy aisle. I need a quart of milk. What to do? I parked the small cart and sneaked in, grabbing the milk one handed.

There is no need to read labels in a pandemic! Time is of essence. Here I am going in to Target to get coffee filters, a pack of veggies and frozen Chinese food. I also looked at a coffee maker for 30 seconds, noting it was 99 dollars.

The frozen items in the back seat cooler (I was going for a walk next) and the clock at starting the car. It took 16 minutes. After the hand sanitizer (always in one coffee cup holder).

After the walk, a second stop at Trader Joe's. More frozen items, including what I will call fish and chips. I did read the label of the box of frozen breaded fish. Pollack. It took 14 minutes.

There Would Be No Trump Without White Christians

 The Trump phenomenon is most pronounced in rural areas. The people there are aware of the masses of people in cities, and that their problems are mostly forgotten. The farm bill is what mainly supports their income. Other services are disappearing as the population leaves. Rural Internet has yet to reach them all. Trump timed his entry into politics perfectly. The "forgotten" people are a minority, but all in all, with suburban whites a minority that can have a powerful voice through the electoral system.

I'm pointing out the Christian aspect, as this seems to unite the people. Either through actual belief, or a somewhat racist attitude, as the congregations are largely white in rural areas and small towns. If the belief is not strong, they still like to list moral rules from the Bible. The city folk either have stopped belonging to an organized church, or are actual atheists in the European style. These are educated white folks. It seems a bit of a modern trend in Europe, brought to a maximum in recent, modern states like Estonia. the small countries are still unified by language, and that too has a white cultural history.

With the likes of Marjorie Greene and Ron Johnson saying things that were not said out loud 5-6 years ago, the model laid out by Trump is now fully functional. Transgender people, men in women's bathrooms and all the rest are laid out and boldly announced. They are like stand out comedians of the olden days (Don Rickles), insulting all the groups that do not conform to white Christianity.

All these people made Trump possible. We were in a rather dangerous situation with no real leadership on the pandemic. Other than the deals made with drug companies. Even the pandemic has to be made faun of, as is a chance for BIG GOVERNMENT  to tell you how to live your lives. A woman running a restaurant in the Copper Peninsula of Michigan was telling all this to a Finnish reporter. Her business has suffered. The county gave her shut down orders after no mandates were followed. She refuses to wear a mask, and has a note from her doctor allowing her not to wear one "due to asthma." Governors in red states are pretty much resisting any efforts by Biden to take over the vaccination effort. The situation in Florida has collapsed when the Publix food store with its pharmacies failed to register people in any orderly fashion.

The CPAC convention has whipped people into a frenzy. I guess Mitch gave up on resisting Trump. It must have been clear to him that they have no other candidate. This will go on for four years. Trump supporters will not give up until they have voted for him three times, or a candidate approved by him.

The support for Trump was 55% and there were no real other candidates. Nikki Haley has no possibilities. She may emerge after 2022. but from now to the 2022 they are going to be all Trump. Mitch may yet run the senate for two years. I predict that will be the end.

The people excited by Trump, for election turnout, will lose interest in elections if Trump is not there. They will go back to local resistance and acting like the victim.

Postscript

The thing that's difficult for us nonbelievers to understand is how the Christians can be so gullible as to support Trump and believe his beliefs about government somehow align with them. Trump really can't worship anyone but himself.

The Trump In Your Closet

 Recently Politico ran an article on Nikki Haley. She is forever tied with Donald Trump. She left her job but kept in touch with her friend in the White House. 

She will not ever rid herself of Trump. But we are here in the prairie. Only one of our states had a senator vote against Trump in the impeachment, Nebraska. Senator Sasse mostly got rid of Trump right then and there.

He just got re-elected in and is therefore not running in 2024 for re-election. But he may have other ideas for 2024.

The other senator from Nebraska is more typical. She became a statewide politician rather recently, 2004. As state senator from a large part of the state in the middle, she probably got to know voters pretty well. To get elected, you have to do something in one of the hot topic Republican problems. Her Nebraska bill was on abortions. She is also involved in education and would support Betsy Voss and private schools in the Trump era. In 2012 she ran for senator and got 58% of the vote against a popular Democrat. Well, as popular as you can be in a red state. She carried exactly the same vote in 2018, but the country was in the Trump era then, so it was unlikely she would lose. Democrats were active in the election but there is always the campaign finance issue. Republicans get funds.

The next time she runs will be a presidential election, 2024. You can guarantee Republicans will show up to vote. And there are still remnants of Trump era voters to guarantee good turnout.

It was probably wise to vote to acquit Trump. She is not going to lose many votes. No Democrat will ever vote for her. Independents are now some 20%, but many are libertarians.

Ben Sasse got into the senate in 2014. He just got re-elected. He will not be in the senate race in the so far hard to imagine 2024 Presidential election year. The Republicans do not have a candidate that has the social media status that Trump had. The white working class will only vote for a candidate like that.

Sasse got 64% of the vote in 2014 against a "let's run someone" from Omaha. It was a man. OK, he had some credentials: He represented the case against the Canadian Keystone XL-Pipeline. Currently Democrats are running women if possible.

Sasse pretty much also represents everything Republican. He denies climate change, opposes abortion and Obamacare etc.  His kids are homeschooled.  I'm having a hard time finding a single liberal thing about him. He opposed measures to give state legislatures more power, selecting senators if the state wants so. He opposed term limits.

Yet he became a vocal opponent of Donald Trump. By 2026 this may be of some benefit to him, as we start finding that Trump measures did not really help Republicans in the state. The China taxes could have destroyed Nebraska agriculture, but bail outs were passed. Some farmers got the idea to blame China, based on Trump, but I feel the majority are smart enough to figure out it was a big bluff.

The truth is, Sasse wants to run for president in 2024. The break from Trump will help him a great deal there. He will need to run nationally and will carry a lot of undecided voters, the same white working class as went for Trump. His personality is a bit quirky, so he may not get far in the primary. But in Nebraska there is not much else to move up to. Governor? That is not as desired a job as senator. But at 48, all options are open. He may move up the ranks to be a secretary for a future Republican president. That then opens opportunities. If none of that works, he will fall back to trusty jobs for these kinds of mid level republicans. He will be the president of some conservative university somewhere. Or just a university with political or similar emphasis. He has a short academic career, and there one learns to be tolerant of minorities. Sasse is familiar with the educated world and does not identify with the white working class. He identifies with Nebraska Republican issues which include the usual plus rural economic issues.

Trump Impeachment

 We had hours of evidence. We had Trump defense showing minutes of film with Democrats saying the word fight. With no crowds going out to terrorize anything after they left.

But it all boils down to this.