I am optimistic about the US in the next 10-20 years

On a message board I found this (abbreviated here):

Every election going forward in the foreseeable future is going to be increasingly bitter as this country rips itself apart. The 2020 election was more bitter than the 2016 election, and the 2024 will almost certainly be even more bitter, more violent, and result in increasing radicalization. 

The only exception to this rule is that I suspect mainstream Democrats to continue to pretend this isn't happening..

I agree about the possibility of violence. But not the negative trend. The democrats have no choice  but continue as is. We don't have socialism. It will be obvious when some plan for health insurance finally appears. It will be basically Obamacare with insurance companies under federal control. Or Medicare as is. The presidential candidates will be centrists. 

The long term trend, however, is towards Democrats. People will eventually either join them, if they have any practical sense, or stay in red states where the republicans have local influence but less and less federal level control. The Senate will very soon go to the democrats by 5 seats or so and the GOP is out of it for a long time.

Anti-government sentiments will be strong in states and at the grass roots level. A large part, some 20-30% of the voters, will be lost to conspiracy theories forever. That way they can blame someone else for their personal failures.

The divide between the two parties has always been there. You cannot tell from turnout numbers alone who voted. But the multicultural groups are often low income, and election day is a work day. voting by mail eased that in 2020. From this graph we can guess that when voter turnout is 5% different from the year before, there was a major issue. In 2020 it was Trump.

The turnout is much the same. I can easily guess that the Trump voters turned out in equal numbers in 2008 and 2012. They hated Obama. But we did not see them so up close and personal until Trump rallies. When they liked someone, Trump, their racism and selfish opinions came out. They do not believe in society. They are out to take care of themselves and a few of their kind. The hatred of "foreigners" was always there, we saw that from DACA. But Trump brought it into focus.

The one thing that is entirely new is the election fraud claim. That could be expected, especially with the kind of personality cult Trump has. But it is something that is NOT normal. It appears that it was still easier for Trumpsters to lose prior to Trump, but now with Trump a shadow of his one time self, denial of the loss and a desperate attempt to change the course of events. The course is the slow change in favor of Democrats by the changing population.

The one thing that WILL keep the divide going is restricting voting. But the GOP can only do this easily in red states. And the battleground states are no longer the same for 2024. I will allow Wisconsin to be still about a 50/50 and the legislature has been attempting the usual tricks. But I predict ALL the battleground states will go the same as they did for Biden. In addition we have some laws, the John Lewis one, in the works. By the end of 2021, Biden and the Senate will allow filibuster to be "carved out" for the one law.

Democrats and Republicans

I am not saying all democrats are some kind of do-gooders. In many respects in daily life people behave much the same. I ride some 5 or 10 miles each morning on our city bike trails. There are annoying dog walkers talking on phones with an ear piece that i find hard to pass. I ring my bell, nothing happens. But these are almost equally members of either party. Most people are selfish. it is in the bigger matters at city and  country level that Democrats are willing to give something away if it makes a more stable, prosperous society. If you are in business, you want customers. republicans are willing to support others in a much more limited way. Generally they do not vote for things they will never use.

On my 15 mile loop around mostly bike trails, I do have a busy intersection where people in cars show their worst behavior. I use a crosswalk at a light. There are only joggers and bikes there, no families. Big SUVs, pickups and service vans (white working class?) block my cross walk routinely. I have never had a Prius block my way. The party affiliation is obvious.

The average democrat will support electric cars, green energy and public transport. It just comes down to affordability. I cannot afford at Tesla at this time, and probably never. I will not be driving much 20 years from now. But I support the idea and the owners. The Trump voters are devoted fossil fuel people. They hate Teslas and wind turbines.

COURTS

I don't want to start a whole new column on this, but in the Eastern part of the country, up to Missouri, courts are going to a more liberal side,. Appointments of judges are discussed here:

POLITICO ARTICLE

Quotes:

On Feb. 28, 1991, 17-year-old Robert Saleem Holbrook sat before a judge in a Philadelphia courtroom waiting to learn if he would spend the rest of his life behind bars.

Thirteen months earlier, on the night of his 16th birthday, Holbrook had served as a lookout for a drug deal gone wrong that ended in the murder of one of the participants. Despite never laying a hand on the victim, Holbrook was charged with first-degree murder, a capital offense in Pennsylvania. Facing the death sentence, he entered a plea deal for general murder, hoping that the judge overseeing his case would settle on a third-degree murder charge, which carried a penalty of 10-20 years in prison. Instead, claiming that his hands were tied by mandatory sentencing guidelines, the judge found Holbrook guilty of murder in the first degree. Under Pennsylvania law, the conviction carried a punishment of life in prison without the possibility of parole.


Thirty years later, Holbrook is, to use the lingo of the criminal justice system, “decarcerated,” thanks to a 2012 decision by the United States Supreme Court that found that life sentences without the possibility of parole for minors violated the Eighth Amendment.

(snip)

In 2018, for example, a coalition of criminal justice reform groups based in Philadelphia joined forces to organize the Judge Accountability Table, an organization dedicated to educating Philadelphians about candidates in the city’s judicial races. Ahead of the Democratic primaries this past year, the group held a series of virtual public forums with candidates running for the city’s municipal and common pleas court and invited candidates to answer a public questionnaire about their judicial philosophy and approach to key issues facing the judiciary. The questionnaire included questions such as, “Do you feel that implicit bias plays a role in our courts? If so, how do you think it should be addressed?” and “What role should judges play in making courts more transparent and accessible to members of the community? What will you commit to do if elected judge?”

The Trouble With Covid Vaccinations....in General

 We are now at the same rate of Covid cases as in late January. yet nobody is socially distancing and the people in states with no mandate are without masks. The problem is, we got vaccinated.

Because the adults got vaccinated, Covid now is considered nothing more than a flu level virus. That means people are going about life completely normally. We drove through Utah, Idaho, Oregon, Montana, Wyoming and Nebraska. Only in Oregon was there a mask mandate indoors. But even there, no social distancing. Young people are interacting, going to concerts and so on. Some among them definitely are not vaccinated.

We will get over this thing, as the vaccines and any future versions of vaccines will make sure that deaths are down, even if you get Covid. But the price of going about business as usual is that we will have a year more of the pandemic. It will go down to Jun and July levels by winter. A slight bump for Christmas. But it will not go away. So by not cooperating (hello Trump voters!) we are just dragging this thing out. And you may still get Covid. And you will not like it.

Right Wing Populism

The Trump era brought out populist tactics. These will rule in red states for decades. There is not really any campaign strategy of "things to do" to improve our lives. Taxes and all the things the right hate are there as fundamental issues, but the focus is on a gut feel against LIBERALS and every single thing they propose. You don't have to list those things in detail, merely label them as socialism. So this is what Trump has done. He funneled all the Foxnews concepts into actual campaign slogans. Politics for the right will be very simple from now on. An example is Teddy Daniels, who is running in Pennsylvania and labels all things liberal as "elitist bullshit." All things to do with  culture, multiculture and all that are just bullshit. The hatred of thing liberal is clear from his campaign ad. You can google for it yourself.

Expanding from Teddy, there are a few things shared by all of the right wing white working class. They think they get less from government than they pay in taxes. This may be true partly, as a lot of federal tax goes to nonproductive things like the military. (Like the trillion wasted in Afghanistan). But they certainly gain a whole lot from state and local government. They also believe that OTHER people get a lot more from the government. These would be the elite, who get culture and education and even jobs from the federal government. The white working class may do too, as the roads and so on are contracted by state and federal government. But that is never considered. The other people who get "free stuff" are minorities. Foreigners also should get not a penny from the government. Life for the trumpster is a zero sum game. You might get something little from government, like roads, but mostly anything someone else gets cannot come back to you as any benefit. Or for the community. Why do they even bother with towns? Just live in a trailer in the desert.

Returning to Daniels in PA,there is a more traditional Republican in that PA number 8 district, Jim Bognet. He got 48% in 2020 and lost. The theory to win, and get all the Trump people backing, is to run the more aggressive populist. The "real" Republican in any district that was not 100% behind Trump is faced with the possibility of being "primaried" out by Trump-minded forces in the state and PACs. The new populists do not need to be real politicians. They simply need to make dog-whistle statements week after week about "open borders" and other standard themes. And then vote NO on everything the Democrats propose.

Once some of these people then get picked as candidate, the 2022 election themes will be the same as under MAGA. Now there are additional "freedoms" that will come up, conspiracy theories about vaccines and all the possible QAnon themes.

"Foreigners" are not a major problem in post pandemic USA

 

The Trump theme was that foreigners are our problem. China was a problem, all the way in China. The others were a problem here, invading our country and taking our jobs.

The numbers are now up a bit over 2020, mainly because there are now jobs again, now that the economy has largely recovered.

The Boeberts and the Marjories are screaming about the border problem because they have a few Trump era things that they need to cling to. That is how they got elected. VP Harris is to deal with the current problem, and she and the government will, but not by visiting the border. All that can be done by executive order.

And I guess they got their wish. And then they will complain anyway.

But frankly, there is nothing new to do. The methods have been the same for 20 years. Deporting is a bit of a cost. But even there, we cannot stop people traveling to the USA. We normally rely on some tourism for income. Some visitors overstay the visa and eventually are asked to leave or deported.

Problems facing the average American are now more to do with the nature of your job, leases, income, home prices, etc. Almost none of these have anything to do with Mexicans or others crossing the border. More likely you will need some of those to fix your roof when you are ready to sell your house. Also, all over the county, crime is up and gun violence is up. You don't need those guns against the illegals. They don't usually have them. It is your neighbor that has one.

Drugs? The Republicans are repeatedly blasting the "open borders" brings drugs into the US. The places where migrants cross lead to a lot of arrests, but not for drugs. The fentanyl comes in by car, and mostly with Americans. See the CATO institute story.

https://www.cato.org/blog/fentanyl-smuggled-us-citizens-us-citizens-not-asylum-seekers

We need to get the world working normally so we can have all our consumer goods for fixing up everything that broke in the past year. And we need China. We do not make much of the clothing and shoes and small end stuff.

Science and the non-college educated voter

Many things in the modern world bother the conservative voter. They are conservatives, so they do not adjust well to new ideas or new science. Even weights and measures have to be what they learned in school, no meters and kilograms. What they know of science is some buzz-words: hypothesis etc. But in general they don't get far with the arguments, and just turn away with suspicion. "That vaccine might kill me." Anthony Fauci has taken a lot of flak for us scientists lately.

He has to take a lot of questions about viruses and Covid. The CDC is the agency that deals with pandemics, though there are state level people that do most of the work. Read Michael Lewis's latest book The Premonition. Pandemics are tricky in that in the beginning there is virtually no information. Mandates are general, from the previous pandemic.

The vaccine end is entirely different. People in government provided funding, contracts and speeded up testing of tens of thousands of volunteers. Those volunteers, by and large, have the college degree. In college you learn to trust the experts, whether you studied science or not. In any case "the government" is not one large entity but experts that look at a smaller task and do cooperate.

But it is broader, the distrust. "Climate does not change now, because it did not before." Send your friend, or read the arguments here:

Climate Change

Fossil fuels are more complex than you thought, but there is a smoking gun. Burning that coal has an effect on carbon isotopes we find in the air.

Evolution is a "theory" so it too is suspect. On these matters the uneducated voter will send their kids to the pastor, who will explain that there may be evolution and all that, but God created life in the first place, so only minor changes tale place. The age of the earth is a more complicated issue. I think the pastor will not give a straight answere.

Amuse yourself with the Lenski affair, a debate between  professor Lenski and a creationist:

https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Lenski_affair

The main problem with science and the public is that the public sees things as black and white. Is it good for me or bad for me? Science has lots of things that require a more lengthy, grayer answer. The explanation may be too long, and starts to sound like the side effects list that is read out at the end of every prescription drug ad. There again the public will consult a trusted expert: their doctor. It's a little better than going to the pastor. And there are indeed issues with medicine today. There are many fantastic cures, but you have to be able to understand the benefit. And cost, the doctor may not know. You will need to talk to the hospital insurance people. The statistics for cures are available, and there are books for many diseases. But even in books, ask someone for a recommendation. Most books on vaccines at Amazon are written by antivaxxers. This one is not.

Pull-up Pants for 2024 Candidate?

 Trump gave a speech. It was the usual, the election was stolen and Biden is a terrible senile president. Well, I didn't actually listen to it. We all looked at Trump. He is wearing blue pull-up pants.

Under these he wears adult diapers. 

Trump does not actually need to say anything new. He did catch the people's attention in 2016 with his simple view of the world, with China at the focus of his hate and fear.

They do not have a candidate that will get anywhere near 45% of the popular vote for 2024. There is not even a chance to have another candidate rise to the occasion. This is simply what the Republicans are stuck doing. The voters will not move on for 2022, where Mitch and pals need all the votes they can get, or 2024. There is a small chance that Trump's diapers and other oddities will start adding up by 2024. That would be fortunate for the GOP. They need to move on and and go back to traditional taxes guns and abortions issues.

The voting itself will be affected by the Republican state laws. But it will not be enough to bring Trump back. All the gains will be in the House and Senate.

The US Constitution and Voting

 The US Constitution is less than 5000 words. Some paragraphs are really tightly written, but still leave some room for interpretation.

Oxford has a number of books on US politics. This one describes the Constitution in brief terms, but does point out the founding fathers and their thinking at the time.

Link:

U-S-Constitution-Short-Introduction-Introductions-ebook/dp/B079S9M7WJ/ref=pd_sim_9/134-8765157-6751848

The senators and congressmen were to be elected by the states. That means that mainly land owning white males were to vote. The expansion to all white males took place in the 1800s.

There is some more detail on the electoral college. The purpose of that was to vote, and then vote again by whatever rules they came up with if there was no clear winner.

So the problem we have now is that the Constitution has no guarantees on the right to vote. It clearly indicates the states have the power to run elections. There is some vague wording that suggests that congress together would decide elections, such as the day it is run, but it does not seem to imply much. This is exactly what the republicans are doing now. In the few hundred years we have run elections, some rough rules have appeared, such as "no poll tax." Women, and those who are 18, have special amendments, but it has been rather seldom that any rules were added.

If Congress decided to pass laws on voting rights, gerrymandering etc., the Supreme Court can always strike them down based on state rights.

Terminology: Let us dump these terms that the Republicans have wrangled to meaningless buzz words

 We can't do much about political correctness anymore. But other terms, all related to races, popped up during the Trump presidency. The ridiculing of these terms intended to make fun of people doing these things and in the case of antifa, a label intended to make Black Lives Matter and any resistance to white supremacism equally violent to their opponent.

The whole of resisting political correctness has expanded to memes that cover Mr Potatohead, Dr Seuss etc. etc. The right really has no argument against being politically correct, it just became a nudge nudge wink wink word for them.

In the pandemic, the political correctness of wearing masks became a target as well, there just was no catchy term for it yet. "Freedom."

The teaching of our history that includes slavery also has to be white washed according to the right. It is not right for right children in school to feel guilty for slavery and the America of the 1900s up to 1960 when segregation was the rule.

The implication of all this, for Republicans, is that blacks are indeed inferior, and that all foreigners are a lower class of people. "We will take a few geniuses from India for Silicon Valley, but that's it." They can't say these out loud in public or social media, but when they talk to each other, the buzz words help imply the meaning. The Karens of the world can go about their business unchallenged that way.

KAREN:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karen_(pejorative)

The Here and Now and the Future

              

THE HERE AND NOW

We've just had an election and departed with a near dictator (though he had the will, he did not have the skill). The foundations of our election were shaken.

The  few words there are in the constitution about elections came to a test. The founding fathers apparently did not trust us that much. There was an option in there of the lower house of Congress (very big of them to leave it to a group of politicians representing more of us, not the senate) deciding who will be president if the election was a mess. The Supreme Court really is not involved.

Following this lead giving the states great powers, Republicans in dozens of states are writing bills to stop the great masses from voting. Working class people these days, with weak unions, have to vote on a working day. It could be in their 12 hour work cycle or a 12 hour sleep cycle. Some lucky few will have a day off on Tue, but that person will be working Sat and Sun.

Other parts of the Georgia election bill put the (gerrymandered) ruling party in control of elections. No more county control, no more canvas boards with two Democrats and two Republicans to certify the election. the goal is to prevent the election from being certified when a Democrat wins.

Other than election tampering, Republicans will just refuse many measures at state level. We saw this with the pandemic. This will be the trend for the next 10-20 years if the Republican party survives. They really do not represent the country, but can rule as the minority party, or at least stop all progressive ideas.

THE FUTURE

The structure of America is such that there are many rural states. We grow a lot of the world's food, in some manner. We send soy bean animal feed to China. China has run out of land, and even more so, the successful industrial nations of South Korea and Japan. These countries and most of Europe have urban people running politics. It does not mean farmers are cut short, it just means they will get subsidies, but will have to follow liberal social ideas of city folks. City folks work as a collective for common good, whereas rural folk have a feel for community, but it is a county with a small population. They will know more of the families in the county than a city dweller of their neighbors. If the state is a red state, they have feelings of unity state wide.

The future will be somewhat more like South Korea, though never that populated. Our states will have cities of a million or more people, like Saint Louis, and the politics will slowly drift towards Democrats. The Democrats will make sure that states follow their lead in things like energy and transportation. The states will not get funding unless they approve some of these measures. Old principles on guns, abortion, religion will stay in those red states. The frustration the Trump voters had was largely to do with this trend. There was racism too, but most of them realized the trend is to go little by little to the left. So the red states will soon become centrist. We see this with places like Montana where there is one Democrat, Tester, in a red state.

I brought up South Korea, where I have visited. It has 52 million people and is about 100 000km2 in area. Both Nebraska and Kansas are just slightly smaller, in the 70-80 000 km2 range. But those states have 2 and 3 million people. You can see it will not be much different even if it were 10 million people, compared to South Korea. With mostly hilly areas, the farming is squeezed here and there along the bullet train rail lines and freeways. A city might be 600 000 people between rural areas, where the American city in the same setting would be about 200 000, with no high rise apartments. Here is a picture from a city a half hour train ride South of Seoul. I walked a mile South of the main belt line and rail line to take this photo. There are somewhere over 500 000 people there.

Hunting and Gathering in a Pandemic

 I shop at several stores, but have been avoiding my main grocery for the most part. If I go there are all, it will be before eight in the morning. Avoiding a virus requires a face mask. Mine is a KN95 that goes behind the ears, but as those ear strings often slip off, I have adjusted it with a velcro strap behind the head. I was wearing it when a granny with a slipping mask was reading cheeses in the dairy aisle. I need a quart of milk. What to do? I parked the small cart and sneaked in, grabbing the milk one handed.

There is no need to read labels in a pandemic! Time is of essence. Here I am going in to Target to get coffee filters, a pack of veggies and frozen Chinese food. I also looked at a coffee maker for 30 seconds, noting it was 99 dollars.

The frozen items in the back seat cooler (I was going for a walk next) and the clock at starting the car. It took 16 minutes. After the hand sanitizer (always in one coffee cup holder).

After the walk, a second stop at Trader Joe's. More frozen items, including what I will call fish and chips. I did read the label of the box of frozen breaded fish. Pollack. It took 14 minutes.