When Conspiracy Theories Are No Longer Theories...They Move On

I am taking a class for seniors with the "down the rabbit hole" phrase in the title. My third class on conspiracy theory was a bit off topic. We of course think of the CIA as something of a conspiracy, but the professor wrote a book on ISIS etc. outfits recruiting Somali boys in Minnesota to go fight in Somalia and Syria. The conspiracy part is not quite the same, though the recruiters had to act in secret. Standard spy/propaganda recruitment efforts. Almost the same as is used to recruit boys to the US army. The political angle is much of the weight here. You utilize culture, beliefs and even religion to convince young men, anxious to show bravery for a cause, to go fight for your side, or "democracy."

But all this is outside the attractive side of conspiracy theories on social media. The aspects of life that relate to the government, or government sponsored or supported science (vaccines, climate change) are the most popular items to toss in with details of your own. You can also track the funding of various things to locate the conspirators. From my side, all things funded by Heritage Foundation are by definition a conspiracy.

The conspiracy theory has to be at the theory level for a long time. This is when it gets followers. When Russians hacked Podesta emails and released them through Wikileaks, it was no longer a theory, it was a Democratic conspiracy. Few bothered with the details and only read tweet sized bits of the emails. They had moved on to other theories.

The political angle of the conspiracy is certainly one factor for the believers, but much more important is the outrage that someone, a secret organization or a known one (FBI/CIA) is manipulating your opinions. The secret nature produces the outrage. "Deep state" included.

I'm interested in the process that leads so many to these theories in such a devoted, deep way. All of the Trump era there were endless little details coming from Trumpsters and their beliefs. It is based on their belief in small government, but the people stay there as long as it is a smallish club, not main stream, and the theory is a a theory. I have not finished this small book. But I suspect there is a lack of education behind much of it and the skills to use the Internet (the dreaded critical thinking.).

Twilight of Democracy

The book covers Poland, the UK and Spain well. She also knows Putin's Russia better than most of us. She speaks Polish. But the US is now alien to her.

The writer associated with right wing intellectuals and wrote articles in their publications all through the Bush era. She describes a few still active people from that era such as Ingraham well. They may have had democratic ideals back then. But Trump is rather superficially covered in the US chapter and she really has no idea about Steve Bannon or talk radio hosts. Even conspiracy theorists would be new to her.

The idea that the left has equally authoritarian ideas is outdated. That went out pretty much with the Vietnam era. The left is seen as elitist now, and the Trump base of uneducated voters that choose a candidate on gut feel is never going to pick one that does not speak in their terms. That is the one thing that Trump was good at.

Foxnews

Foxnews is owned by Rupert Murdoch, who has run a lot of television in the US for the past few decades. The cable channel is provided by cable TV and satellite TV. The broadcasting giant also runs popular TV shows, such as The Simpsons and back in my day of more TV watching, House (played by Hugh Laurie). With the popular shows, people are already tuned to Fox. Fox Sports is very popular. Not exactly ESPN, but a lot of viewers. Fox has one show I currently watch Hulu.

Many rural people rely on satellite TV for news and entertainment. Foxnews and regular Fox. Older people in cities may have some sort of Internet for the most essential use, or rely on help by their relatives to deal with the things they need to sign up for. Surprisingly, some have got used to cell phones so they get a lot of family news and essential things like weather from the smart phone, but still have not got to using the Internet widely and for anything more than headline news. The map if Internet use shows may Southern and Red states with less use. Surprisingly, some Red states like Idaho and Wyoming have good coverage. There are large parts of those states with low population, so there are in fact people with no internet, but those in the small number of cities (Boise etc.) outnumber them.

States like NE, SD and Iowa as well as Texas rely heavily on satellite TV for the news feed.

So then we come to Foxnews itself. It dominates both cable and satellite TV.

Even California and the East Coast, where MSNBC and CNN dominate, can't quite outdo Fox. If you add up those two, it is roughly the equal of Foxnews. One factor involved here is that the more "college educated" people have given up on TV news. They can get news on line and then watch Netflix and Hulu entertainment with no streaming live feed for the TV.

Tucker Carlson is the most extreme of the Trump supporting hosts on Forxnews. Chris Wallace certainly isn't.  Carlson reinforces the ideas that his conspiracy theory believing audience always wanted to believe. Immigrants are bad, the election was stolen and vaccination for Covid is dangerous. In addition the wearing of masks seems to rob the viewers of "freedom." School board meetings are full of Foxnews fans complaining about the mandates. Carlson's show has the best slot in evening "news," if you can call it news, at 8PM.

It's difficult to believe that he is getting away with this. But either the audience is entertained by this or has been brain washed by Trump supporting web sites, radio and the other sources of misinformation.

Lately he has been promoting a documentary that attempts to prove that the January 6 insurrection was a false flag operation, probably planned by the FBI. it's purpose was to get rid of Trump once and for all. But the impeachment failed, so we are still stuck erasing Trump from our politics.  He will faade away after the 2022 election and then be only part of the 2024 election. Trump is torn, he does not like to lose, and he wants revenge. But he had no fun being a president other than at his rallies.

The Foxnews phenomenon has been with us as a main problem for over a decade. When we had the 2008 financial crisis, Foxnews was able to spin it as a problem of too much government, when it really was a lack of control of the financial sector. Anat Shenker-Osorio explained it in her 2012 book Don't Buy It:

When Rural America Starts to Change

Congresswoman Boebert gave a speech and fundraiser in La Plata County, on the Southern edge of Colorado. She lost the county in 2020, 57% to 42%. These are the people that came to hear her.

They appear to be a mix of working folks and small businessmen plus some ranchers. Rural people in farming do not see any advantage to the Build back Better plans of Biden. They only care about federal support of farming, roads and transportation. The Democrats from the county would look exactly the same.

The support for Trump does not seem to be anywhere near the same as in Texas. Texas has a huge population and whites still determine the politics. In the SW, the native American population as well as Latinos have some say, as they are a good portion of the population. Here the mix is only almost 90% white. But the 10% Latino is a significant number. They have been seeking an identity for decades. Some as business owners identify as Republican. Some of those businesses are not that well to do, and it may be tough balance to work with wages, taxes and all. This is not Silicon Valley. Minimum wage is all some of them can afford for their employees. Many are probably on Obamacare as the small end of business (not national chains) provide no benefits.

So the business people are probably Republicans, but not Trumpers. They get along with their local Democrats. Durango, the major city, is a tourist attraction. Tourist towns tend to keep politics out of the public view. Nearby there is a national park, Mesa Verde.

The past of the county included mining as an industry. Land use is mainly agriculture and tourism. There is no oil here, so it is never going to look like Texas.

Biden won the county 58% to 40%. This county is more like the future of America than Texas or Iowa.

Boebert has moved away from this district. The Wikipedia description gives the demographics but not the 2024 election.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colorado%27s_3rd_congressional_district

From Ballotpedia:

Jeff Hurd was born in Colorado and lives in Grand Junction. Hurd graduated from Grand Junction High School. He earned a bachelor's degree in liberal studies (classical literature and philosophy) from Notre Dame University, a J.D. from the University of Denver, Sturm College of Law, in 2008, and an LL.M. from Columbia Law School in 2010. His career experience includes working at the Grand Junction Area Chamber of Commerce, as a law clerk to United States Court of Appeals for the 10th Circuit Judge Timothy Tymkovich, and as the co-owner of a law firm.

I am optimistic about the US in the next 10-20 years

On a message board I found this (abbreviated here):

Every election going forward in the foreseeable future is going to be increasingly bitter as this country rips itself apart. The 2020 election was more bitter than the 2016 election, and the 2024 will almost certainly be even more bitter, more violent, and result in increasing radicalization. 

The only exception to this rule is that I suspect mainstream Democrats to continue to pretend this isn't happening..

I agree about the possibility of violence. But not the negative trend. The democrats have no choice  but continue as is. We don't have socialism. It will be obvious when some plan for health insurance finally appears. It will be basically Obamacare with insurance companies under federal control. Or Medicare as is. The presidential candidates will be centrists. 

The long term trend, however, is towards Democrats. People will eventually either join them, if they have any practical sense, or stay in red states where the republicans have local influence but less and less federal level control. The Senate will very soon go to the democrats by 5 seats or so and the GOP is out of it for a long time.

Anti-government sentiments will be strong in states and at the grass roots level. A large part, some 20-30% of the voters, will be lost to conspiracy theories forever. That way they can blame someone else for their personal failures.

The divide between the two parties has always been there. You cannot tell from turnout numbers alone who voted. But the multicultural groups are often low income, and election day is a work day. voting by mail eased that in 2020. From this graph we can guess that when voter turnout is 5% different from the year before, there was a major issue. In 2020 it was Trump.

The turnout is much the same. I can easily guess that the Trump voters turned out in equal numbers in 2008 and 2012. They hated Obama. But we did not see them so up close and personal until Trump rallies. When they liked someone, Trump, their racism and selfish opinions came out. They do not believe in society. They are out to take care of themselves and a few of their kind. The hatred of "foreigners" was always there, we saw that from DACA. But Trump brought it into focus.

The one thing that is entirely new is the election fraud claim. That could be expected, especially with the kind of personality cult Trump has. But it is something that is NOT normal. It appears that it was still easier for Trumpsters to lose prior to Trump, but now with Trump a shadow of his one time self, denial of the loss and a desperate attempt to change the course of events. The course is the slow change in favor of Democrats by the changing population.

The one thing that WILL keep the divide going is restricting voting. But the GOP can only do this easily in red states. And the battleground states are no longer the same for 2024. I will allow Wisconsin to be still about a 50/50 and the legislature has been attempting the usual tricks. But I predict ALL the battleground states will go the same as they did for Biden. In addition we have some laws, the John Lewis one, in the works. By the end of 2021, Biden and the Senate will allow filibuster to be "carved out" for the one law.

Democrats and Republicans

I am not saying all democrats are some kind of do-gooders. In many respects in daily life people behave much the same. I ride some 5 or 10 miles each morning on our city bike trails. There are annoying dog walkers talking on phones with an ear piece that i find hard to pass. I ring my bell, nothing happens. But these are almost equally members of either party. Most people are selfish. it is in the bigger matters at city and  country level that Democrats are willing to give something away if it makes a more stable, prosperous society. If you are in business, you want customers. republicans are willing to support others in a much more limited way. Generally they do not vote for things they will never use.

On my 15 mile loop around mostly bike trails, I do have a busy intersection where people in cars show their worst behavior. I use a crosswalk at a light. There are only joggers and bikes there, no families. Big SUVs, pickups and service vans (white working class?) block my cross walk routinely. I have never had a Prius block my way. The party affiliation is obvious.

The average democrat will support electric cars, green energy and public transport. It just comes down to affordability. I cannot afford at Tesla at this time, and probably never. I will not be driving much 20 years from now. But I support the idea and the owners. The Trump voters are devoted fossil fuel people. They hate Teslas and wind turbines.

COURTS

I don't want to start a whole new column on this, but in the Eastern part of the country, up to Missouri, courts are going to a more liberal side,. Appointments of judges are discussed here:

POLITICO ARTICLE

Quotes:

On Feb. 28, 1991, 17-year-old Robert Saleem Holbrook sat before a judge in a Philadelphia courtroom waiting to learn if he would spend the rest of his life behind bars.

Thirteen months earlier, on the night of his 16th birthday, Holbrook had served as a lookout for a drug deal gone wrong that ended in the murder of one of the participants. Despite never laying a hand on the victim, Holbrook was charged with first-degree murder, a capital offense in Pennsylvania. Facing the death sentence, he entered a plea deal for general murder, hoping that the judge overseeing his case would settle on a third-degree murder charge, which carried a penalty of 10-20 years in prison. Instead, claiming that his hands were tied by mandatory sentencing guidelines, the judge found Holbrook guilty of murder in the first degree. Under Pennsylvania law, the conviction carried a punishment of life in prison without the possibility of parole.


Thirty years later, Holbrook is, to use the lingo of the criminal justice system, “decarcerated,” thanks to a 2012 decision by the United States Supreme Court that found that life sentences without the possibility of parole for minors violated the Eighth Amendment.

(snip)

In 2018, for example, a coalition of criminal justice reform groups based in Philadelphia joined forces to organize the Judge Accountability Table, an organization dedicated to educating Philadelphians about candidates in the city’s judicial races. Ahead of the Democratic primaries this past year, the group held a series of virtual public forums with candidates running for the city’s municipal and common pleas court and invited candidates to answer a public questionnaire about their judicial philosophy and approach to key issues facing the judiciary. The questionnaire included questions such as, “Do you feel that implicit bias plays a role in our courts? If so, how do you think it should be addressed?” and “What role should judges play in making courts more transparent and accessible to members of the community? What will you commit to do if elected judge?”

The Trouble With Covid Vaccinations....in General

 We are now at the same rate of Covid cases as in late January. yet nobody is socially distancing and the people in states with no mandate are without masks. The problem is, we got vaccinated.

Because the adults got vaccinated, Covid now is considered nothing more than a flu level virus. That means people are going about life completely normally. We drove through Utah, Idaho, Oregon, Montana, Wyoming and Nebraska. Only in Oregon was there a mask mandate indoors. But even there, no social distancing. Young people are interacting, going to concerts and so on. Some among them definitely are not vaccinated.

We will get over this thing, as the vaccines and any future versions of vaccines will make sure that deaths are down, even if you get Covid. But the price of going about business as usual is that we will have a year more of the pandemic. It will go down to Jun and July levels by winter. A slight bump for Christmas. But it will not go away. So by not cooperating (hello Trump voters!) we are just dragging this thing out. And you may still get Covid. And you will not like it.

Right Wing Populism

The Trump era brought out populist tactics. These will rule in red states for decades. There is not really any campaign strategy of "things to do" to improve our lives. Taxes and all the things the right hate are there as fundamental issues, but the focus is on a gut feel against LIBERALS and every single thing they propose. You don't have to list those things in detail, merely label them as socialism. So this is what Trump has done. He funneled all the Foxnews concepts into actual campaign slogans. Politics for the right will be very simple from now on. An example is Teddy Daniels, who is running in Pennsylvania and labels all things liberal as "elitist bullshit." All things to do with  culture, multiculture and all that are just bullshit. The hatred of thing liberal is clear from his campaign ad. You can google for it yourself.

Expanding from Teddy, there are a few things shared by all of the right wing white working class. They think they get less from government than they pay in taxes. This may be true partly, as a lot of federal tax goes to nonproductive things like the military. (Like the trillion wasted in Afghanistan). But they certainly gain a whole lot from state and local government. They also believe that OTHER people get a lot more from the government. These would be the elite, who get culture and education and even jobs from the federal government. The white working class may do too, as the roads and so on are contracted by state and federal government. But that is never considered. The other people who get "free stuff" are minorities. Foreigners also should get not a penny from the government. Life for the trumpster is a zero sum game. You might get something little from government, like roads, but mostly anything someone else gets cannot come back to you as any benefit. Or for the community. Why do they even bother with towns? Just live in a trailer in the desert.

Returning to Daniels in PA,there is a more traditional Republican in that PA number 8 district, Jim Bognet. He got 48% in 2020 and lost. The theory to win, and get all the Trump people backing, is to run the more aggressive populist. The "real" Republican in any district that was not 100% behind Trump is faced with the possibility of being "primaried" out by Trump-minded forces in the state and PACs. The new populists do not need to be real politicians. They simply need to make dog-whistle statements week after week about "open borders" and other standard themes. And then vote NO on everything the Democrats propose.

Once some of these people then get picked as candidate, the 2022 election themes will be the same as under MAGA. Now there are additional "freedoms" that will come up, conspiracy theories about vaccines and all the possible QAnon themes.

"Foreigners" are not a major problem in post pandemic USA

 

The Trump theme was that foreigners are our problem. China was a problem, all the way in China. The others were a problem here, invading our country and taking our jobs.

The numbers are now up a bit over 2020, mainly because there are now jobs again, now that the economy has largely recovered.

The Boeberts and the Marjories are screaming about the border problem because they have a few Trump era things that they need to cling to. That is how they got elected. VP Harris is to deal with the current problem, and she and the government will, but not by visiting the border. All that can be done by executive order.

And I guess they got their wish. And then they will complain anyway.

But frankly, there is nothing new to do. The methods have been the same for 20 years. Deporting is a bit of a cost. But even there, we cannot stop people traveling to the USA. We normally rely on some tourism for income. Some visitors overstay the visa and eventually are asked to leave or deported.

Problems facing the average American are now more to do with the nature of your job, leases, income, home prices, etc. Almost none of these have anything to do with Mexicans or others crossing the border. More likely you will need some of those to fix your roof when you are ready to sell your house. Also, all over the county, crime is up and gun violence is up. You don't need those guns against the illegals. They don't usually have them. It is your neighbor that has one.

Drugs? The Republicans are repeatedly blasting the "open borders" brings drugs into the US. The places where migrants cross lead to a lot of arrests, but not for drugs. The fentanyl comes in by car, and mostly with Americans. See the CATO institute story.

https://www.cato.org/blog/fentanyl-smuggled-us-citizens-us-citizens-not-asylum-seekers

We need to get the world working normally so we can have all our consumer goods for fixing up everything that broke in the past year. And we need China. We do not make much of the clothing and shoes and small end stuff.

Science and the non-college educated voter

Many things in the modern world bother the conservative voter. They are conservatives, so they do not adjust well to new ideas or new science. Even weights and measures have to be what they learned in school, no meters and kilograms. What they know of science is some buzz-words: hypothesis etc. But in general they don't get far with the arguments, and just turn away with suspicion. "That vaccine might kill me." Anthony Fauci has taken a lot of flak for us scientists lately.

He has to take a lot of questions about viruses and Covid. The CDC is the agency that deals with pandemics, though there are state level people that do most of the work. Read Michael Lewis's latest book The Premonition. Pandemics are tricky in that in the beginning there is virtually no information. Mandates are general, from the previous pandemic.

The vaccine end is entirely different. People in government provided funding, contracts and speeded up testing of tens of thousands of volunteers. Those volunteers, by and large, have the college degree. In college you learn to trust the experts, whether you studied science or not. In any case "the government" is not one large entity but experts that look at a smaller task and do cooperate.

But it is broader, the distrust. "Climate does not change now, because it did not before." Send your friend, or read the arguments here:

Climate Change

Fossil fuels are more complex than you thought, but there is a smoking gun. Burning that coal has an effect on carbon isotopes we find in the air.

Evolution is a "theory" so it too is suspect. On these matters the uneducated voter will send their kids to the pastor, who will explain that there may be evolution and all that, but God created life in the first place, so only minor changes tale place. The age of the earth is a more complicated issue. I think the pastor will not give a straight answere.

Amuse yourself with the Lenski affair, a debate between  professor Lenski and a creationist:

https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Lenski_affair

The main problem with science and the public is that the public sees things as black and white. Is it good for me or bad for me? Science has lots of things that require a more lengthy, grayer answer. The explanation may be too long, and starts to sound like the side effects list that is read out at the end of every prescription drug ad. There again the public will consult a trusted expert: their doctor. It's a little better than going to the pastor. And there are indeed issues with medicine today. There are many fantastic cures, but you have to be able to understand the benefit. And cost, the doctor may not know. You will need to talk to the hospital insurance people. The statistics for cures are available, and there are books for many diseases. But even in books, ask someone for a recommendation. Most books on vaccines at Amazon are written by antivaxxers. This one is not.

Pull-up Pants for 2024 Candidate?

 Trump gave a speech. It was the usual, the election was stolen and Biden is a terrible senile president. Well, I didn't actually listen to it. We all looked at Trump. He is wearing blue pull-up pants.

Under these he wears adult diapers. 

Trump does not actually need to say anything new. He did catch the people's attention in 2016 with his simple view of the world, with China at the focus of his hate and fear.

They do not have a candidate that will get anywhere near 45% of the popular vote for 2024. There is not even a chance to have another candidate rise to the occasion. This is simply what the Republicans are stuck doing. The voters will not move on for 2022, where Mitch and pals need all the votes they can get, or 2024. There is a small chance that Trump's diapers and other oddities will start adding up by 2024. That would be fortunate for the GOP. They need to move on and and go back to traditional taxes guns and abortions issues.

The voting itself will be affected by the Republican state laws. But it will not be enough to bring Trump back. All the gains will be in the House and Senate.