Books on our bookstore shelf

I have a couple of books on the middle class or working class, Rachel Maddow's last book (Putin, oil, fracking etc.). But I was curious about the last ten years or so in US politics. How did the two parties get to the point where nothing bipartisan will pass? The first book was by a favorite author, but pretty much ended with the Bush era. I am in fact looking for exactly this kind of book, but it should cover at least the first Trump year.

On to the next book I picked off the shelf:

The book covers an interesting topic, a bit narrow. I guess the point there is that we in fact need the FBI, and they do a job, which generally has little to do with politics. But in this case the interference to the election was real. You would need to read this and the Mueller report together. On a side note, it is comical that the right finds the FBI alarming now, where the hippies of the 70s lumped the FBI with the rest of the "pigs," but that was of course before 9-11. We had no major terrorism.

Next book. The author is labeled a pundit. Had to pass, one sided.

The next one was interesting too, but would I finish it? Ian Haney López is a law professor at Berkeley.

The one I bought, Pitchfork Populism,  had to do with the Trump era, and Trump appears to pop up on at least every other page. We find that Trump base is about 20% of voters. The rest are traditional Republicans and independents. The book cites many studies of various sorts, including studies on young voters, media, smart phones etc etc. It is written from a somewhat academic view point, so I suppose a Trumpist could read it as well.  But probably will not. it does not really provide them any ammo for the next election, or to ridicule or to start new conspiracy theories.

Kane states: Trump “is actually a weak, insecure, self-obsessed, delusional, disloyal, emotionally diminutive figure who hyperextends himself to overcompensate for his personal faults, ineptitude, and intellectual impotence”. Continuing: “A growing chorus believes that Trump lacks the dignity, character, civility, ethics, judgment, intellect, discipline, and composure, to lead a conga line, let alone the greatest nation on the planet.”

One more book I had to get on line:

This is a book about the Internet and politics. It is not a book that will tell you why Trump won, for example. That would require a more detailed look at the people who voted for him and their views.

With that out of the way, you do learn about how the message is spread nowadays. Even if the voters got the message from TV, the Internet still had a role in passing along the messages learned.

Whether you believe the studies and conclusions is up to you. They are explained in enough detail that you do not need to go read the original papers.

As an example, the message of the phrase "deep state" starts around page 148 and goes on to page 158. Other similar phrases continue from there on (draining the swamp etc.).

We have to give credit to Trump handlers, Foxnews et al. for feeding these short phrases to the public. What part took them for real, and how the right and left react to the media feed is examined. it was not all that sophisticated, mostly repeating a thing over and over until it became a fact in the mind of voters. Sometimes you have to tell people what they already suspect and it is less of an effort to convince the right group. If Trump says is is fake news, many believe.

I guess you have to summarize Hillary's failures as two:  lacking the short messages the right produced (though she warned us of Trump and Putin) and also failing to address the voters about their job and other needs. Healthcare was a touchy thing, as Obamacare was still ongoing, and actually quite expensive for those that did not get any subsidy.

I keep telling myself that few of the Democrats have really grasped Twitter, and it may be too late anyway. The Trump base of some 20% and many others who voted for him are thoroughly convinced they are right. We in fact cannot tell what Trump's deeds are doing now and in the long run, other than in agriculture and trade. Jobs is very up in the air (the definition of "job" is vague) and you would only find out in eight years if he helped you out. It seems that the tax cut, in any case, was small for anyone in the biggest income group.

Have not perused the book on racism and nationalism yet. The index is good, so if you have favorite topics, you can read the sections on that. This book seems to be the only real well researched one on recent elections and the Internet. You do not need to read every page.

My conclusion is that the majority of people who buy and read books are left leaning, but there may be a bit of a rise among Trumpists for a short while. Pro Trump books are a good third or more of the books on the shelf. I got as close to buying a Trump book as I will ever get. I do not want him to be selling books, as much as I like books and want to promote anti-Trump writers. The faster we are done with Trump the better. We can then deal with the white working class a little better, without a populist messing up what they actually want to say. Many state that "Trump speaks how I feel," but there may many topics where they disagree. Trump has capitalized on the fears of the white working class, that they will lose power.

Generalities and Echo Chambers

The impeachment process is unfinished. The country is more divided than ever. The Trumpists are no longer open to any facts, we will just wait to see the next election. If Trump wins, he will also lose the senate. He is then open to more impeachments. There will be more and more Ukraines.

The general belief of the right is that "government is broken" is felt more by the right and the libertarians. The libertarians, because nearly everything the government does is too much, it should just concentrate on infrastructure and keeping us independent as far as water and other resources are concerned.

The right wing in general, though, thinks it is broken, because the few things they want government to do, such as the Trump Wall, are blocked by democrats and judges.  Democrats want more neutral judges, but otherwise think government is fixable.

The left and most of media is anti-Trump. There may be some behind the scenes activity that might be labeled deep state, but it is not as deep as Trumpists think. Yes, the government may be spying on you, but blame Bush. He started Homeland Security.

The echo chamber on the right consists of following Foxnews, Russian controlled social media, One America News Network and the like. They are chasing week after week after "dirt" on democrats in Ukraine. Because Putin directed Trump there. To save his reputation, even if he never was aware of Russian tactics in 2016.

If you want to follow what happened in Ukraine, there is an excellent timeline at Just Security.

LINK

Basically, none of the push to get the Ukraine presidents (first one, then the current one) to announce that they are investigating Joe and Hunter Biden was happening till 2019. All that happened when it was clear Biden would be running. Prior to that there was an effort to explain the 2016 election interference coming from the Ukraine rather than Russia. A thought Putin planted with Trump and Trump was more than willing to promote.

ECHO CHAMBER

The worst part of life on the Internet that is mostly trash and you need to learn to use it properly.  Many, possibly most, people do not understand the Internet. Asking or searching "vaccines cause autism" and "vaccines do not cause autism" gives different results.

But you may not even be searching an issue, the info just comes right at you through Facebook and Twitter. You can use those just for close friends, but even if you just express opinions to a small group of friends, the media still feed you stuff that agrees with what you already think. This is how they get advertisement money, as every link or other item you follow from Facebok gets them income. Click click click. That is their only mission. They do not want to disagree with you.

As a result of this, you are unlikely to get info that is correct, but disagrees with what you have already stated. The social media do not care about facts.

There is a limited part of the Internet that is somewhat reliable. Outside of politics, Wikipedia is very reliable. Google searches that give you mostly published data (it could still be left or right slanted) is Google Scholar.

The Post Trump Republican Party

The Republican party has finally achieved something. They lowered taxes under Trump. That may not be what the GOP of the early 2000s was after, because they wanted to cut public spending. But this is the new party. They only want to cut taxes, not spending or deficits. They can achieve things in 2 or 4 year runs. They will be looking for a leader after Trump that has some of the appeal that he had for the working classes. Global warming, coal, foreigners, jobs, taxes. all that carries over from the Trump era. But they will be looking hard for a politician who deals with the media the way Trump did. I presume Twitter will continue. Trump is supreme there, Democrats just add some spice once in a while, and the  Pelosi "don't mess with me" message works in the same way Trump tweets do. But none of them are willing to use Twitter daily. Well, maybe AOC does, not many.

The party is unlikely to ever return to "old Republicans" such as Romney.

It will then be a different world for Republicans, trying to hang on to battleground states like Wisconsin and Michigan. The momentum is lost in Wisconsin, with state internal politics going towards Democrats lately.

The tea party and libertarian wing will always be there. But cutting benefits will not go well with the new Trump era "independents" voting for their party. With any small recession even, the new right will be feeling the effects of Trump era rules on food stamps and other benefits. Farm aid went mostly to big farms and ranches. The small farm suffered under Trump, bankruptcies went up.

The party will survive, but I believe much of the populist appeal will go with Trump. Whether Mitch goes or not, he never had the same appeal. He was simply a Trump enabler.

With the electoral college remaining, the Republicans will still get a president once in a while. The states will hang on to the right of assigning all electoral votes to the winner. Gerrymandering has been blessed by the Trump supreme court. Still, the party will not grow.

Democrats, on the other hand, will have to expand past healthcare. keep or fix the healthcare we have, but move to favor jobs and business. It can be the Warren way, with new energy project, infrastructures etc. But first you have to get a presidency and a senate. The contracts will go to private corporations so watch corruption carefully. The deep state accusations will continue. Even if they are largely fantasy.

The business of politics will continue through lobbying, that we have not been able to stop. Lobbyists can work with either party. Lobbyists have more power than the uneducated voters that went for Trump.

They Hate Taxes -- and Government!

I have gone to demonstrations at the state capitol for the past few years. I know those groups and the type of liberals there pretty well. I also drive around the state doing outdoor activities. I see the other half. It is probably 50% here, or even more in rural counties. In the nation it is some 40%. These are the people that voted for Trump. But they are not going away. They work minimum wage, and you can get by with that in the middle of the land. Rent a one-bedroom apartment or hang on to the little house you inherited. It has a one car garage. The husband leaves the pick-up outside in front of it. It may even be full of junk. This family makes enough to pay a little federal tax. State tax is maybe 2.5%, but there may be a low limit where you do not pay that.

They get something for that state tax. They get roads, they get police and fire while driving around the state. The city collects a tax as well, and property tax goes to pay for public schools. Very few of these people can afford home schooling with a parent staying home. That is for their pastor’s wife, and for a few big shots in their church.

At the gas station I heard a few of these people complaining about the new ¼ cent sales tax added to take care of roads. No bike paths, parks or extra fluff is to be paid out of this. It is for cars. Yet they complain. “What happened to all that other tax I pay to the city?”

It would be fruitless to explain city finances to these people. They do not care. It is fruitless to explain about immigrants and jobs. They do not take any of the jobs that you would take, unless it is mowing or roofing that you do at minimum wage. Outdoor jobs.

In general they do not care about politics. Sometimes they do follow AM radio, where the all the talk can be summarized as “government is bad and it will take away your guns.” But they would not be able to explain city funding, city politics, city officials and services. “I don’t need any services. Just the state park sticker so I can go camping, boating and fishing.”

They buy lottery tickets. It’s like cigarettes and beer, it’s a habit. But even there they are suspicious of the “millions disappearing” into those “Democrat politicians’ pet projects.”  Schools and nature. “We have enough trees already!”

Often, without much knowledge, there is a kind of resentment of someone who is “getting something for free.” They actually are envious of those who are poor enough to be on Medicaid. “That old black guy has COPD, he earned it. Why should I pay for his oxygen tanks?”

The bottom line is that there are millions of people out there who do vote, but get very few facts. Even if they did, they have a mostly libertarian bent in politics. Trump is not the last to use this. We will need to give them something. The infrastructure jobs that would give them a benefit, for example. They may not even know that the contractor they work for is paid by that awful FEDERAL government.

Healthcare

Healthcare does not seem to play a big role in these people's lives. Some may owe a lot to hospitals, mainly for injuries. They seem to mostly avoid doctors.

This means that they will vote for whatever candidate seems to cost them the least. Many may see NOT buying health insurance as a great choice.

Democratic candidates will not win votes based on healthcare. They may eventually be positive towards it, once they have the coverage. Especially if they have kids.

Trump Will Be Impeached

This is not a political year. In local politics there were no real elections. Yet, since 2016, since I had shortly moved to a great plains state, I can't ever forget that at least half my neighbors voted for Trump. The Republicans I can understand, in the sense that they never vote for a Democrat. Never. They could possibly stay home and not vote.

But here we are. The president made a quid pro quo deal with Ukraine.

The simple minded man stated on the white house lawn this week that he will keep doing this, in the name of seeking out corruption.

I just came to the awful conclusion: maybe Trump is as dumb as he seems. He seems to be the typical conspiracy theory follower. He is not qualified to run the country. Is this high crimes and misdemeanors or just a flaw, like a physical flaw that one might have but still function, more or less? He seems to justify the principle that what is good for Trump is good for the USA. All else is treason.

Hannity releases a conspiracy theory, perhaps distilled from Alex Jones or Breitbart. A week or two go by. Next we know, Trump is directing foreign policy by this. Joe Biden and Hunter Biden were in Ukraine at the same time, there must be a conspiracy!

The other part of Trump doing all these things is to do with people surrounding him not ever disagreeing with him. Their only job is to prop up his ego and flatter him. Sometimes they try to spin things he said to lessen the damage.

Board members and directors are hired by corporations to look good in a PR sense. They put pictures of them in brochures etc. It is sort of impossible that there is not some corruption in the Ukraine, a developing country. The CEO of the company Hunter Biden worked for actually had a seat in the Ukraine bureaucracy giving essentially himself permits. But this is not a matter Hunter Biden let alone Joe Biden was involved with. Board members meet a couple of times a year to see that a company is run properly. An accountant report from an independent agency shows the business. Stockholders get all this info. This and a few bigger changes is ALL that board members do. They are not there to bribe or help a business along in some illegal manner.

Trump will be impeached. Trump votes will say "the Democrats got away with it again, the Bidens are crooked." And the Senate will vote to keep Trump in power to the end of 2020. Or nearly so.

The evidence for Biden blame is weak, other than the mentioned Burisma CEO himslef. NBC has a good story on it:

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/there-s-no-evidence-trump-s-biden-ukraine-accusations-what-n1057851

ALTERNATIVE INTERPRETATION

Thinking about Trump voters, who get their info from Foxnews and Breitbart, there is a possible explanation of what Trump is doing.  He wants to be in the press, fake or not:

1 He gets Democrats and the press outraged. This just plays into his hand, because his base LOVES him trolling the Democrats

2 He is planting the seeds of his 2020 message: Biden is a politician. All politicans are crooked, but Biden especially working as vice president was able to obtain personal gain in connection with foreign contacts, After all, Hillary did! (according to them: uranium One). It is his launch of the Biden version of "but her e-mails." It now becomes "But Biden and Ukraine."

The End is Near

American Carnage

A book on the Trump era by  Tim Alberta is worth a look, to understand what we are heading for in the 2020 election. My prediction is that if we have Biden running, he is going to look weak against Trump. Facts are out the window. It is all about appearances.

Guardian intoduces the book with these words:

Trump surveyed the rusty hinterland of what used to be God’s own country and vowed that “this American carnage stops right here and stops right now”. Since he lies whenever his mouth moves, the opposite was true: the carnage – of constitutional norms, international accords and rules of civilised conduct – was about to begin and for Trump, who says at one point in Alberta’s book: “I fucking love this job!”, it has been a gleeful carnival, an opportunity to foment an almost cosmic chaos.

Link to buy the book:
Book

Farming issues

I complained last time about economists ignoring farming in general audience books of how the world works. There are other books that have lots of facts in a different manner:

The book is also sold under the name
What's Really Happening to Our Planet?: The Facts Simply Explained

One page points out the soil issue which should become a major issue as the climate changes:

More on this topic, and the reasons for organic farming is explained in another book. Basically we kill all the organic matter in the soil, including bacteria and other life, between crops. If you leave that matter in the ground, it prevents erosion and also retains water. Natural soil retains water.

it is the combined use of farming chemicals and leaving bare soil that causes that. No till agriculture leaves some stubs over the winter and helps retain soil, and can be done with "chemical" farming as well.

A related video:

A little economics

Much of farming and ranching has to do with politics. It is a complex story, having to do with lobbyists, farm bills, industry related to it (Monsanto, food processing), subsidies, crop failure issues etc. The farmer in the prairie tends to be Republican. I'm not going to get into the details of that, other than to mention that their main intent is to keep state money in the state and to direct as much of federal tax collected as possible back to the state. They understand the need for some federal control and support, such as is flooding and river issues. But still, they have not found Democrats addressing their concerns.

Aside from a recent interest in the workings of politics (not so much politicians), I have gathered a few books on economics. Very few of them mention agriculture. In the US, only some 2-3% make a living producing our food at farms, ranches and orchards. The more broadly defined "farm industry," which includes the farmers and ranchers as well as some support networks, employs 11% of the work force. If economists look at food at all, it is a measure of poverty. If you cannot eat the quantity of starch, protein etc. one needs daily, you may be close to the poverty level. One of my books tells that Japan eats enough food that if they were to raise all their own food, they would need five times the land they have. Many Asian countries are in that situation. Whether rich or poor, they have to export goods to eat.

What we all do for work:

Some of that work is in fact in rural areas, but is not farming. For example, there are seed plants, chemical plants and ethanol plants. Some food processing takes place in rural towns. These are for example in Western Kansas, where there are slaughter houses.

I was out West bicycling with a group. We saw many trains with a few hundred coal cars. Many of the rocky mountain states have coal. It comes from Wyoming, Montana and states South of these. Much of your electricity is still made from coal. It is one of the cheap sources of fuel. For agriculture, the fuel is mostly oil or ethanol based.

Other trains bring containers from the West. A good part of them contains consumer goods from Asia. Much of the clothing and personal items of the farmer and rancher working on the prairie. Why do we need to haul it so far?

It has to do with wages. If you make Nike shoes at 3 dollars a hour in Asia, compared to 15 dollars an hour in the US, the shipping cost becomes clear. If a pair of Nikes costs 50 dollars, the labor is a small part of that (it does not take an hour to make shoes by machine or even partly manually.) But the shipping actually is a long process, and many hands are employed getting your shoes to the store. My guess is that the shipping is equal to the costs of labor to make the shoe, and not anywhere near the cost of making it here. The stores and distributors take their major cuts.

Another way of looking at the costs is to assume the 3 dollar worker in Asia (Vietnam) makes 10 pairs of shoes at 3 dollars an hour. The US worker makes the same 10 pairs of shoes at 15 dollars an hour. Therefore, it must cost less than 12 dollars to ship the 10 pairs across the ocean. The shipping within the US does not enter into the comparison, as you would have to ship it to distribution centers in any case.

How shoes are made: Video 1

A more traditional method: Video 2 

Big Things are still made in the USA. International Harvester used to make the combines for harvesting, but a series of mergers with heavy equipment makers has left the company with a product but all new names. The combine is explained here:
LINK: Combine

The harvester is now Case IH: https://tractors.fandom.com/wiki/Case_IH

Red tractors are no longer made in Iowa or Illinois, the plants have moved to Wisconsin:  News story

The cows were everywhere when we bicycled. Wheat was here and there, where irrigation was not needed. 

And corn was common where center pivot irrigation was used. Corn is another story. Corn and soybean are a major source of animal feed. To feed one American, about two acres of land is needed. Those Asian countries want to raise animals, but with the shortage of land in Asia, we export feed to them. Much of out food is made from the agricultural raw materials by a few giants such as Conagra.

Patriotism

Donald Trump has his base supporting him and those 40% will vote for him no matter what. But there are states that still are borderline. Given a 5% error in polling, the states of the rust belt still matter.

This is where patriotism matters. Trump is in a position to act patriotic and strong. His tweets and acts support a strong effort, though no military action. If Putin took over Ukraine, we would do nothing.

As it is, he appears patriotic in front of crowds, and there is some appeal to simple working class folks who celebrate Fourth of July with a bang. Baseball, hot dogs, apple pie and Chevrolet and all that. There is nothing wrong with being loyal to your country, to enlisting in the military, to feel good about your country. Provided we are in a situation where our military actions get the support of our allies.

The Democrats are in a position of weakness. Though Clinton got talked into some military action, he was a centrist. Hillary is history as well. Our trend is not to support nation building. We see the exporting of "democracy" as mostly a failed effort. Oil states rotate toward a dictatorship because the people in general do not own the land oil.

Our military efforts would be in support of our allies or toward stability in trouble spots, such as Kosovo. None our acts are seen by voters as "strong" or particularly patriotic. The Trumpsters, as I now understand, just want us to be boss in every situation. Negotiation is not seen as patriotic. We just want our way, they say. Trump is doing exactly that at least in appearance, and tweets. Basically he says fuck you to any foreigner, any unamerican party or view. We will go alone!

The Democrats tend to attend to matters more important at home: veterans, firefighters at 9-11 (as expressed by John Stewart to Congress recently). We go about it differently: less cheer leading.

Problems come from appearances. Trump appears patriotic to his fans. it is difficult to understand that most of them do not see it as a con. He represents them, whether he is sincere or not!

Bush was a rather useless president to start with. His golden opportunity was provided by Bin Laden. It is kind of sad we could only rise to the occasion when assaulted. But that is how things went. Bush was not as good as Trump at appearances, though Trump hugging a flag and Bush lading on an aircraft carrier amounts to the same. Just showmanship.

Trump's fight against "foreigners" and "China" or "Mexico" is seen as patriotic. This is a problem. We need to deal with immigrants in some manner, and the Democrats better get a clear message on that soon. Biden could use to his advantage that Obama deported 2.5 million illegals.

Trump plans big Fourth of July celebrations on 2019 and 2020. presidents normally do not participate. I hope the people will come to see that it is now  ALL ABOUT TRUMP. He is stealing our national holiday!

Abortion

Missouri became a leader in the anti-abortion movement all of a sudden. Quietly, clinics have closed by arbitrary rules. The major urban area at the Western end, Kansas City, has no clinic. Curiously, very conservative Kansas next door has a clinic in nearby Overland Park.

Nationally, white men have been ruling on abortion in all these states. Missouri had a Democrat for a senator, and even a governor. But now it is fully conservative. When the economy is doing well, the conservative issues, like abortion and guns, become campaign issues. The death penalty is also a popular campaign item. The Missouri house and senate look like this:

Nationally, Joe Biden was holding on to 20 year old ideas on abortion. These things were always decided by men. But as we have several women candidates running, Biden had to change his mind on this immediately. He no longer bans federal funds for abortion.

Nobody wants to face abortion personally. The rules put in are there to scare the single women, who have no means to support a child, to carry the child to term and put up the newborn to adoption.

The facts concerning abortion are the same as any other item you can look up on the internet. The truth lies out there, but you have to search a bit deeper. Start with Wikipedia.

Fetuses have a heart beat to exchange oxygen with the mother through the placenta. This not mean a fetus of 8 or 12 weeks is a functioning being. At 8-9 weeks it has limbs, fingers and toes. You can look up pictures of it.

Survival at past 20 weeks is only 50%, and the whole thing becomes a healthcare cost issue. Do you want the senators to pay for it? If not, what business do we have deciding? The options for the mother at 20 weeks are few, depending on insurance and local rulings. At this point, all options should be purely medical angles. Past 30-32 weeks survival is quite optimistic. But the whole thing is still quite in the medical arena at this point. The decision should be between parties involved and the doctor. The state legislature or the US senate has no business inside the uterus at this point. There are medical reasons even for late term abortions. These are rarely done, something like 1-2% in most countries. Before we had abortion, women had to carry a dead fetus along for 9 months and give birth to a dead baby, if it did not abort on its own. It was quite common.

Added note: Biden was still struggling with this issue. It's not complicated. Katie Porter explained it to Bill Maher: Your mother made a choice. You are the consequence of that choice. We are all here because of that choice our mothers made. (Well, past 1960 something).

Someone else is getting something for free!

Global warming is not real. The foreigners are taking all the jobs. Foreigners are not smart and we should not them into the country. And we absolutely should not ban plastic bags, how else will the owner of this pick up get his fishing snacks and supplies to the lake?

He was at the local lake, popular for all joggers, grannies, fishermen, kayakers and all. And me. He honked at me, passed me and came out to direct me to the bike path. The bike path around the lake is gravel, some of it was under water, and there were plenty of people at the shore using it. Dog walkers. I get to ride it when it is empty in November. He however is annoyed at my blinking tail light and HIS paying for my bike paths that I did not use. I was on the paved road. The road is used to get to locations in the park. It is useless for through traffic. He was going back and forth on both shores of the lake, "policing" it by his rules.

The main principle these people have with public spending is that "someone else is getting something for free that I do not." The thinking is close to that of libertarians, but not as well thought out.

There is no guesswork in deciding that he voted for Trump. These people are not interested in spending any public money for any group, any cultural activity (other than 4th of July rockets), anything different from the mainstream. Fishing is OK, "guys do it," because they need to get away from their wives on weekends. Bicycling is some liberal crazy thing. Jogging is almost as crazy. Half the funding for our trails is there for joggers. We host a well known half marathon. Crazy spending! Actually the marathon brings income. Billy Bob approves of baseball diamonds, and might even support the tax money supporting a local small time baseball team. At least the stadium. The games get ticket income for a little support to the athletes and staff.

Billy Bob must be really hurting when we have our once a year trail event, with thousands of cyclists and families doing loops that are cut off from car traffic on a June weekend. Trails are used for about half the distance.

Billy Bob is happy to know we do not spend public money for abortions. That is for the crazy socialist Europeans.

I wonder if Billy Bob favors education? He must have kids and grandkids in town. Do we need to have them learn modern life? Just the basics? Anyway, I am paying for his kids to learn, I pay property tax. I don't mind. I do not have kids or grandkids in town. some other Billy Bob will have to pay for their education elsewhere in the country.

Politicians

Who wants to make a career as a politician? What skills do they have? What motivates them? Who wants to spend decades in an office building with meeting rooms? Suppose you are in Montana or Idaho and are public minded, and here is where you go, or even a more plain office block building built in the 1900s. There the passionate Republicans can debate for days and days about acceptable ways to execute criminals or perform abortions. Or to ban the clinics in some technical manner, making the abortions more or less impractical. The abortion is only a bus ride to Seattle and back, but that itself is mostly impossible.

If I had the inclination to go into politics, I would tackle some practical matter for one or two terms, such as trash, and be done with it. Even there, you get people on the right or left to oppose NEW IDEAS, sometimes together.

The people out there is sparsely populated states have the same tasks as in the populated East. Police, city utilities, highway patrol, flooding and all the practical matters of life. The Kansans had to finally deal with their penny pinching Republicans and collect funds to take care of mounting problems. I admit that when Republicans are forced to deal with a practical problem, they can do it. I also admit that Democrats can also solve those same problems, but perhaps with more spending and debt. They want to fix it RIGHT, for the long term. The Republicans, however, are  more likely to be buddies with the contractors and play golf with them.

In middle of the road states you get the pendulum effect. The right merely has to cut taxes and spending for as long as possible. They never have to solve problems that cost money. They have to do things  they were voted to do: stop abortion, stop gay marriages, stop liberals. This costs nothing! Well, actually costs a lot, in the form of social problems and crime that follows. But the voters do  not see the connection.

Then in the middle of the road states the Democrats take over for 4-8 years and fix the stuff the Republicans refused to fix.

As an effective use of taxed money, politics is not the solution that spends the least money. They rarely use trained professionals, such as city managers who actually do know how to do public spending. Those type of managers do not get involved in social programs, only remotely, such as providing housing.

But there are forward thinkers, and eager young people launch into a career to push medical marijuana or wind power or some other thing. I guess there is a place for them. In many ways a dictatorial system such as China is better equipped to deal with practical problems: roads, infrastructure, health care, dams, waterways, harbors, airports etc etc. They also have allowed capitalism to enter in the form of manufacturing. This makes us dependent on them and war less likely.

I don't need to think about being a politician. I could only be and adviser. Where I live, they would not vote for an outsider and an atheist.

Lock Up Trump already!

I'm allowed to say that, because I have no power to lock him up. Crowds of simple working class folk who seem to be threatened by immigrants, democrats, healthcare, lack of jobs without a college degree etc etc. seem to think it's OK for the president to incite a crowd to physically threaten opponents who have different political views.

This was what went on at Grand Rapids. It is sad to see that the supporters do not see a difference in MSNBC or Saturday Night Live making fun of him, criticizing his politics and making conclusions about his crooked business practices and then Trump's behavior. The most powerful man on the planet suggesting treason and asking Adam Schiff to resign is entirely different. We call it bullying at this point but it is on the verge of becoming illegal.

The Uninhabitable Earth

The Mueller report release is the topic of the day, although the Trump camp has started another attack on Obamacare. The 2020 election is coming and the Green New Deal has brought the environment slightly to the news. However, most liberals see the main task is getting rid of Trump first.

Here in the prairie we suffered flooding that was the result of a bomb cyclone. Violent weather and excessive rain are thought to be a consequence of warming.

I picked up a book on the climate change issues and politics, David Wallace-Wells’ best seller The Uninhabitable Earth. In this book you can find all our climate related problems catalogued. However, my main interest was in the chapter Crisis Capitalism. Rather than actually focus on capitalism as a factor, it is a list of behavioral economics factors. Psychologists have now studied for decades how we make economic decisions. Israeli scholars Tversky and Kahneman started the ball rolling and came up with the terms to describe our “rule of thumb” behaviors when given choices.

This behavior is related to climate, because our response follows those rules of thumb.  Most people resisted the idea initially, of human caused warming and carbon dioxide effects. Anchoring, ambiguity and other behaviors are at work. When faced with uncertainty, we tend to react in such a way as to minimize loss. We are programmed to recognize possible loss and avoid it. Winning is good, but loss is what guides our behavior. Somehow it is not working in the face of climate change. David Wallace-Wells stated that we treat it as a riddle, something not understandable by the average person. He does not list conspiracies, but many people have started thinking of the government and its published science as merely as a conspiracy. Alex Jones and Breitbart capitalize on this, The Heritage Foundation actually publishes misinformation.

David Wallace-Wells also mentions the bystander effect (let us see what others do!). Optimism bias and pessimism bias are both active. The latter leads to defeatism. We cannot do anything! The planet is too big, nature is too big, it does stuff we cannot control, so why try doing anything? 

Others think politics is useless for any change, as lobbyists control politics rather than voters. The internet and its manipulations in social media adds another item to things we can’t fight. Others have pointed out that leftist dictatorships, such as China, have more power to change things quickly if they wish. Some writers point this out and a label, “shock doctrine” is used by Naomi Klein.

Young people without children are more likely to be affected by peer pressure to do something in their personal lives. They can choose where to live and work. Middle aged people are unlikely to change anything at all until the children have left the house. Much of our rich lifestyle comes directly out of burning fossil fuel. We are reaping the benefits of the energy spent somewhere else on the planet and sent to us as food and products. Just the shipping of cheaply made goods from Asia is a big energy drain. That fuel is cheap diesel oil, so it does not add to the price of goods. Unless you tax it.

People are drawn to prophets and preachers. Some will respond to charismatic speakers rather than science. I myself have supported people who have this skill, fully knowing that the prophets are simplifying things for the common man. Al Gore, however, is not a favorite, I do not really like the politicians who have taken up the challenge. Millionaires sometimes feel guilty for the wealth they have collected and start global initiatives through their charities.

The economic impacts of climate change will eventually  become a nagging everyday item. People will eventually be dulled by it. However, small investments now will prevent even bigger changes later on. We are not quite sure how the free market will help things. It probably won’t. It will just be a fight for every little patch of earth we own.

Finally: a little dark humor to end this piece.

He could have gotten a dog or run for president

Now it finally came out. Trump is just an old man with nothing to do. He wanted some people, any people, to like him. He found his crowd.

But we could all have got off easier if he had just gotten a dog. He rambled on about dogs in his El Paso speech. But, if he had gotten that German shepherd, that dog would have liked him. Dogs are bred that way. That dog would have saved us from a lot of misery.

Trump is the Republican Brand now

Having stuck to low taxes and less government for decades now, the Republicans are now fully behind Trump. They have not grabbed national attention in previous election years, and the politicians realize the facts: they themselves will get the maximum votes if Trump is on the ticket. It does not matter if he wins or not. The people fired up about "foreigners" and "the wall" as well as repealing all Obama did are the ones that get them voted in. Not just in red states but borderline states as well, and states with one senator from each party. Our governor ran on Trumpian ”less regulation” and less government issues. He also erased all benefits the state was providing illegal aliens. We allowed them some semi-official papers and healthcare.

The RNC decided not to have any primary challengers to achieve their goal. And it will make it easier for them to work with Trump in whatever time he has left. I believe impeachment is coming, but perhaps just rolling to full force in late 2020. This would be perfect for Democrats as well. They may lose a few seats in the house 2020 or hold on to their own, but it will give them something to do for Oct, Nov and Dec of 2020 and the new Democrat coming in taking over. First, bring it to near impeachment by election and then use two months to bring Trump to a halt.

Shut Down Not Going Anywhere for Trump

Trump will have very little to brag about after his proposal. He may offer some temporary relief for DACA children, but nothing permanent. But Trump can't deport them all either, too costly. So he really has nothing to bargain with. As it is, the courts have put DACA on hold for at least a year. The Trump directive to erase it was not legal.

Trump may declare an emergency and order the wall built. Almost nothing will happen on that for the two years he has left.

His defense of election dirty deeds is going badly. Cohen will testify and set any remaining issues straight. Then the rest of his term will be a battle fighting an actual impeachment.

A president polling 39% approval and that hanging over him cannot win a 2020 election.

Congress also will do almost nothing, though some solution to the shut down will come in a month or so. The country is too crippled past that to operate. And Democrats will have proven all those officials and bureaucrats were necessary.

One thing the news have sort of missed is that neither Trump or Mitch care that the government is shut down. Trump is free to travel and act normally while his staff is not paid. Mitch on the other hand is running his own experiment to cut down Big Government. He does not care what it causes.

The world simplified: it must be a conspiracy!

I touched upon conspiracies a few times earlier. The column addressed common beliefs.
Americans and conspiracy

I also had a column on our tribal view of leadership:
Tribal age views of life

Looking a little deeper into this thing, there is a benefit to thinking up reasons "somebody is out to get you." When societies were developing, people had to adjust to living with a number of others and to be wary of any threat. We looked at others and tried to recognize patters of behavior to categorize people as friend or enemy. It did not actually matter if a few neutrals were classified as enemy, just to be on the safe side. Once we had sorted things out, we could go about our business more calmly.

Trump voters tend to be these people that simplify things in this manner. Trump himself does not bother learning details of things. He quickly decides if it is with him or against him.

Democrats do something and they get angry. There must be some bigger force behind this phenomenon. Let's blame Hillary! Or even George Soros!

We live our lives by rules of thumb. We make quick decisions. Blaming something on a conspiracy categorizes it. It no longer needs to be thought about. Generally we make these generalizations with little evidence. They can be adjusted a  little, but the Trump voter rarely completely changes his mind on any matter.

It's been found that people that believe in conspiracies also tend to believe in the supernatural. Both supply a simplified explanation to things unexplainable otherwise. When the belief becomes overwhelming, or a fear of conspiracies, the people no longer function normally in their daily lives. So a small amount of suspicion helps save you from harm, but too much can take over your life.

Science and technology are other things that come under suspicion, especially if a government is involved. These have been discussed in previous columns.