Wednesday, December 29, 2021

National Populism: Another book in the wake of Trump and Brexit




The book covers much the material that other books do. There are no interviews of actual voters that voted for populists, so we are stuck with numbers and surveys.

Yes, the politicians are no longer the same as the great mass of working class voters. They are rich or educated or both. Even in the UK, the labor party has no people that used to labor.

The various points are brought about in historical context. Yes, the rule of the masses has been a concern since Greek times.

One item I distilled out of this in my mind is that the average voter has to make some connection to the candidate in some manner. Trump managed this, Hillary did not (although she certainly got all the liberals, minorities etc. She was not feared by the voters that voted her. ) Conspiracies are not covered in this book, so all that surrounding Trump and distrust of Hillary is not covered. So we are left with this bond that the voter has to a like-minded candidate. The average voter does not seem overly concerned with the campaign promises ("they sounded good") but rather a distrust of politicians in general. Distrust of the elite is covered well. Distrust of "big government" not so much.

The book lists things other than jobs and economy that are important to white nationals: community, belonging, group identity, national identity.  In the examples in the book those items come out in Europe as rejection of Islam and immigrants who do not assimilate.

A bit on the academic side as far as the writing ( I would condense it a bit), I managed to get what I needed by grasping the main topic of each chapter: Distrust, Destruction, Towards Post-Populism.

There is an index if you need to keep it for reference. It is slightly on the academic/global side, so the coverage of the Trump era and the things leading to it (McCarthyism etc.) that might be labeled populist is rather a minor topic. This has the big picture.

The analysis of the voter from a journalistic or social psychology perspective is minimal.

Another side the books fails to capture is the current attempt to sidetrack the democratic process in the US state level control of elections. It could not have been included as it happened past 2020. But the claim is about populist movements supporting democratic elections in general. That may be more of a European trend.

The book has a number of charts that show lack of trust in the government in various places with time. Other charts track the other trends.  Party affiliation decline. The one item I know personally from talking to trumpsters on message boards is again an American trend, though the EU has lost popularity too. The US white working class has some hatred of the federal government, sometimes pretty much all it does. Taxes, regulation, bureaucrats, inspections, cultural programs. Fauci. Everything. Some of these functions are supported at the state level, enough for us to function.


Thursday, December 16, 2021

Wages, Biden and Inflation

The wages are going up. This is good news. You can look for the video by Robert Reich with Chipotle in the title.

What happened was not even predicted by economists. But by providing unemployment benefits for a longer period in 2020 and 2021 the government gave people a chance to look for new jobs. With a lot of businesses slowing down services due to the pandemic, they were not needed for a while. Even if they came back to a similar job the pay was raised. Now that we are ignoring the pandemic, mostly, the service jobs are back. With raised wages.


Republicans are not making note of any of that. They are reminding us retirees that there is inflation. Food costs more. The government caused it! Biden caused it!

Well, the pandemic bail outs and unemployment certainly had that effect. But it was already well on its way to the current state before January of this year. Trump and Biden could just stand on the side lines and observe it. Presidents do not cause the economy. But occasionally, with the Obama-Bush bailout and now the switching jobs phenomenon, the trend over even a half year does help us along. Hopefully we raised stagnant wages. But the CEOs, including the Chipotle CEO in Reich's video, also got raises. 

It will be curious to see the long term effect. Rarely does the life ot the one percent and the working class go up at the same time. Maybe we found a more efficient way to work, working from home, so we spend less on transportation and such? Hard to predict.

The inflation? Well, the federal reserve has a small effect. But there will be inflation. The workers will only enjoy the raised wages and income for a short while. In 5-10 years they will be exactly where they were before the pandemic. Maybe we need that free community college.

Reich talks about raising prices when the sellers/providers have control of too big a chunk of the market:

https://robertreich.substack.com/p/truth-about-inflation

Note that big business does not care about "the economy" the way politicians tell us to care, and work hard and tighten the belt. Growth and acquiring more of your sector is the goal. Inflation is irrelevant to big business.