Is there a way forward past Trump?

Republicans are stuck with some Trump policies. They cannot lose their voters because they disagree with Trump. Ukraine is a good example.

If we end up with Trump, some America First issues will change quickly. Most of them domestic issues. The change in foreign policy will be much slower. The US military is still somewhat independent of the president.

If we end up with Nikki Haley, we will see a quicker exit out of the Trump era. Pew has run the poll. There is still a lot of anger which Trump whipped in 2016 and which had kept Trump himself going. But the country will only see revenge under Trump. Haley is our way out of this. Not really commenting on any of her political views, she just appears more normal next to Trump. This may turn against her in the middle of the primaries. DeSantis dropped out and more of the extreme voters will go from him to Trump than to Haley.

The story ran December 14th. The headline had to do with a dislike for compromise. Trump certainly will be exactly that. He will decide on money going to foreign countries and even NATO. The NATO issue is more to do with our bases abroad. Trump wanted to completely pull out of South Korea. "We are not their piggy bank." In other foreign policy matters Trump will simply tell leaders what he will do. He does not discuss with leaders.

Trump voters are not entirely in support of ideas that the GOP brought up, so they are pretty much focued on the candidate and not the issues. Trump is trusted to do something about the border. Foreign policy is not something they think much about. More than half the voters overall think foreign policy is important. It came up in the 2022 election, long before the current Israel mess.

Among Republicans, those with college degrees and those over 65 have ideas that match Nikki Haley. There is no difference between men and women supporting Trump, but more men support Haley than women. Those with high school only do not support Haley.  Those supporting Haley are the group likely to leave the president slot blank when electing, if Trump is the candidate. 

Republicans that have college degrees have no major problem with Biden as leader. The economy is doing well, and again...these are the people who have 401K plans. Personal issues are very important to the wealthy and upper middle class.

Abortion was not a major factor for Republicans in 2022. The independents and Democrats will have to show up in polls with that issue throug 2024. Partly it will end up on state level refendums votes. Those will help turnout. The issue is not off the books yet, and may get Biden the win.

Mornin'! 10 more months of this?

Probably.

Biden's message failing the working classes

Joe Biden can deliver a speech, though of course he does stumble a bit. There is no need to do it all live. You can film and edit. 

What I talk about below is one item on the mind of Trump voters. However, it may be very tiny overall. The Trump base is angry. When people are angry about their situation it is difficult to change their mind. And....when it is all over, they seem to forget how they decided and claim that the result was "not their fault." Voters never take blame for what they got after the election.

Back to the topic. Joe's image.

That is neither here or there, the main problem is the message. It is not good to boast about the markets, the economy or even jobs figures. The person just getting by will feel even more of a loser reading about all this success. The success of corporations. On the personal level, wages did not go up as much as costs of consumer goods. The speech writers are failing. He needs to hire a writer with a bachelor's degree in poltical science or journalism. One that paid their own way through college. Address the needs of a person just getting by. Inflation increased prices and wages went up a little. But not enough. These people are not putting money into 401K accounts. The ones with the college degrees are. There are some small things improved for the consumer, but the details seem to be "not news." One item I have looked at poorly...I don't really do economics any more than catching a "meme" here and there...is debt. There seems to be some consumer debt in the picture. See link at the end.

Home prices have been another factor. Starter homes need to be built and Biden has made a small effort in this. The plan is for "500K" homes in the lower price end.

A person on a message board I follow put it best:

"We can look at home prices, wealth inequity and taxation, student loans, social safety nets, energy and the environment, childcare and healthcare costs, etc. and not seeing a future where major reform is required for it to work for anyone not eyeballing retirement."

I guess even I don't see the situation quite as it is, since I am in fact retired. I am not going to criticize things at the federal level, they did remarkably well past the pandemic. And I also know that Trump did nothing for me in the long run. We retirees, working class folks and students are not in the tax bracket where Trump helped out. But he will tell them he did, and the Trump base will believe him.

Meanwhile, I now shop for everrything: services, coffee at under 6 dollars a bag or new tires. We all do that now.

LINK to economics, personal debt:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2023/09/15/americans-gloomy-about-economy/70833096007/