Looking Ahead to Somewhat Hopeful 2026 and Later Elections

It will be difficult. And Trump will do a lot of damage in two years. Or even the last weeks before he is sworn in. The Supreme Court may help push extreme small government and social program changes for two years. But we must look ahead, too.

First the January mess. Trump getting his big party thanks to Billionaire money. And we are now getting toward the days when the chaos cabinet for Trump is assembled. A lot of it is putting in department heads to strip down their own department. But Trump is also showing his might over the senate. The senators still worry about re-election in 2026 and 2028. I assume they think they can run Vance in 2028. 

But Vance is nothing, all bluster. Oh, he would run if there is enough support for him in the primaries. But if the MAGA folks are still intrested in politics in 2028, those are all he will get in 2028. It really does not matter if it is he or more established Republican. They do not have anyone that can speak to MAGA and also get the independent voters by scaring them about "losing America."

I am still sticking to my prediction that we will have a different president every four years. That would also include the prediction that all old candidates are scrapped. Democrats in the primaries will not run Harris or Wlaz. It will be a governor.

The goal is to prevent him as much as possible. Prove that democracy works even here, and that by 2026 we will have this under control. Isn’t this a bit of an expensive experiment? First going to the Trump extrme, then bringing those essential things back. Trump can do a lot in two years. The failures in our constitution are obvious. If the president has the House and Senate and the supreme court, there are only the states and lower federal courts to hold him back.

Because Trump pulled out so many from the house, he won't be very effective the first half year. He will attempt to deport as many aliens with the funds he has. Execute orders for many things. The other problem is what is happening with the budget just before Christmas and the first half year. We just have to see. 

We can sort of make some guesses about Trump. He acts impulsively and will not back out of things he decides: Nippon Steel is not buying US Steel.

What is not guessing is that his cabinet is there merely to destroy the administrative state. Mike Johnson is openly talking about SMASHING it.

Trump starts right off with tariffs. A very astute analysis by this poster. Trump is campaigning. What he does best.


                 

And this is partly the reason for his popularity. He campaigns and takes credit continuously. He makes himself the news.

Biden did none of that, a few speeches here and there. But he was so in the back ground, so presidential, that in this social media world it looks like he did nothing.

And we are still wondering about the 2024 election. What has become bolder is simple racism. Telling immigrants outright to go back where you came from.

The New World Order

While we sit and wait for Trump world, there is a claim about our future that looks unstoppable. Capital has reached a point where the average person has no way to stop the way it shapes the world.

The Trump phenomenon with its cultural issues makes it look like some people are getting what they wanted: getting back to "traditional values." But that may just be a trivial effect from Trump, the supeficial part. It of course matters to liberals and multiculture and any individual that does not fit into Mike Johnson's world. But the bigger shift is to a world pretty much run by coporations and wealth. We all have worked for wages, but this is control of us in a much bigger way. The plan is to make us completely dependent on giant corporations that employ us.

The corporations and billionaires have supported candidates with very conservative social issues mainly because that is who they can get in. The corporations do not care about trans gender or healthcare. They only want control of taxes and minimum wage and also some trade. Trump is not the perfect candidate for them. Corporations are globalists.

Democratic principles can be thrown out according to Yuval Harari. Our skills are going to be worthless due to AI taking over even a lot of service jobs. Our vote therefore does not count much, and the world where our worth is little is coming.

The irony is that Trump was allowed to present it all as a grand scheme to take us back to the 1950s world. Those male and female roles and values. The manufacture of consumer stuff is in fact never coming back and Trump will never raise the wages of the white working class. Their only power is to support the social issues that he brought to the front of everything. They may even feel good about "owning the liberals."

Having been rather powerless for decades, MAGA folk may not notice much change in the next few years. The rest of us are all yielding our poltical power to wealth. Corporations and billionaires. We have about as much power at that point as people did under communism. The power we had by electing liberal polticians that would allow at least our multicultural nation to exist. And some minimal welfare and regulated health insurance.

The educated classes will be struggling as well, as many of our jobs can be automated but may need some supervision. And the AI collected data and summary may need to be approved by a human before an AI decision takes effect. But we have often changed jobs and skills, so our chances are slightly better.

The PR problem: "government did not do anything for me."

The election we had focused on issues Trump brought up and had the supporters thinking about for the entire year. A good portion did not vote based on any practical issues, such as the economy, but on so called cultral issues. The fact that those issues weighed more is largely due to the fact that the same voters believed that "government does not do anything for me." I will address the issue of Democrats at the end.

The MAGA voters did not think Harris was going to help them. Either the government does not help them but helps other groups (illegals, those on food stamps). Or the things it does are way too far into the future and will not help them one bit (green energy).

Government has not done anything for them, they claim. What was it supposed to do? Most of them don't pay much federal income tax. Their biggest tax is probably property tax, which is local. We just get the feeling they think the government is only doing things for someone else.

The problem came up with actor Craig T Nelson. We know him as Coach.

His famous quote on Fox:

“They’re not going to bail me out,” Nelson said. “I’ve been on food stamps and welfare. Anybody help me out? No. No.”

It was an epic rant, in large part because the actor didn’t seem to recognize the flaw in his observation. Taxpayers helped him out by paying for his food stamps and welfare, but in Nelson’s mind, no one helped him out. As far as he’s concerned, food stamps and welfare just don’t count.

(more text by Steve Benen, google it)

So the working poor know there are some forms of welfare. But it just makes you feel worse, a loser, to take it.

A good number of people that used to work for a company end up as some kind of independent worker. Lawn care, a plumber retired from industry, electricians. They all get healthcare through ACA if they are undr 65.

Government just is not a business. They do not have to funds to advertise what they did. Only senators and congressmen in their campaign ads on TV. Where the Republicans claim supporting things they voted against.

The government is there to support you in many aspects of life. Things to do with your every day life. Buying a home. Home loans are still guaranteed by the government, and rates are lower. Veterans get benefits.

Elizabeth Warren has passed bills that helped get financial support and protect you in every possible investment situation. 

The government will also help out in retraining for a new skill. Locally there may be support for every high school student going on to at least two years of college.

All of this is actually going to go away if Musk and Ramaswamy do what they plan to do. Strip down every cabinet to a point where they no longer work. Trump is not going to send fire fighters to California fires anymore, because there won't be any fire fighters. They come from 

-U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Forest Service and U.S. 

-Department of the Interior and others.

Trump will personally need to save the USDA if they go after it. The Farm Bill and that department are essential for rural America. There are issues like crop insurance which will never make it to a national platform. Because they are not as important as transgender bathrooms.

There are countless things in life that the government is involved in that seem a nuisance, but are there to protect you. They are there at all times even if you do not know. Think of goverment as the oxygen mask that comes down when you need it. You can then make a safe landing in a short while.

Democrats

The complaint about Democrats not doing anything for the working class may be true, but on the other hand voters have given them very slim majorities. Social Security reform (actually simple: tax higher income) cannot be done. Compare that to a Republican win. Social issues and scare tactics got Trump elected. The result is giving more power to corporations and the rich. This happens over and over, every GOP president and under Clinton. It is just inching year after year to extreme capitalism. Denial of their own healthcare by profit making insurance companies is one more thing that the MAGA voters voted for.