Democracy: a week gone and we are not doing so well

 

The Black Knight is optimistic. The stuff is just piling up day by day. Is there anything we can do? Sure, the voters WILL protest, espeecially in places like LA. In 2017 in congress there was good resistance to Trump. And his henchmen were incompetent. But so are Democrats now. My take is that the last hope they had of immediate action went with the Trump supreme court. After that there is nothing to do but wait. If we are lucky Trump will last 2 years. He only had a 1-2% win.

Well, the Democrats do not head any committees involved in any of this.

Anti-science

 

I had this written up when the book came out. Now with RFK Jr inserting wacko ideas into healtcare, it is again relevant.

Peter Hotez's book describes how anti-science has become problematic. It can even prevent government funding of research.

Biology is still quite a mystery to the layman. Their approach to it is political and grassroots activism. You can read about politics and Fox News' campaign to oppose science in the name of freedom in other books. However, here the opponents of vaccines are described quite accurately. The factors you do not immediately see are also explained to some extent. Consumers are consumers of misinformation spread by a systematic machine. It is not worth basing your opinion solely on social media.

Who benefits from opposing vaccinations? Hotez mentions at least the trolls hired by Putin on social media. They spread false information about almost everything. Disinformation here and elsewhere, as well as the chaos of the pandemic, were Putin's goals. Local groups then seize on the false information to spread as facts. Scientists with important titles were also hired to come up with false information. The book mentions Jeffrey Singer, who wants to popularize all science. Scientists should no longer be in the role of "gatekeeper", but with the help of the Internet, a person could compile the information themselves and act on it. Even if a substance had been found to be ineffective against Covid, if it does not cause medical harm in a certain dose, a person would be allowed to try any substance on themselves.

There is also a large group of peddlers of fake medicines and “vitamins” circulating on the Internet. Hydroxychloroquine and a couple of others were popular during the corona pandemic. The criteria by which medicines and vaccines are tested and developed are not easy to read with the experience and education of a layperson. It is easy to grasp the simplest explanation. It is easy to exaggerate the risks of vaccines. In the case of Covid, it was not known that the mentioned risks and health problems in the Covid vaccines were the same, but more dangerous if you got Covid itself.

The functioning of the immune system is not understood by the layman. It is only understood that when you get the vaccine, you need to wait a while for the immune system to be ready to fight the virus. But at least that is clear. Those who have been vaccinated are starting to doubt whether the vaccine was of any benefit if you got Covid anyway. The statistics that support vaccines are tables, and they cannot be summarized in some Twitter-style message.

The book lists political groups that work in the healthcare sector. There is also a section on climate change and those who oppose anything related. All the January 6th rebellion groups, the Proud Boys and the like, are involved in sending threatening messages to Peter Hotez. He came into the picture during the pandemic and was even on television much more often than Anthony Fauci.

Anti-vaccine groups were ready since 2015 in Texas and California. When Donald Trump was elected president, opposition to science was in full swing. All government projects during the pandemic had to be modified stop depriving freedom. Public health in the US operates at the state level. State recommendations put in place, and in each state there is a person in public health leading that.

Public health operates at state and county level. Quarantines and tests were ordered. Now this was seen solely as the enemy of the individual and no compromise was made if there was even the slightest risk to the individual. Before the pandemic, there was misinformation about vaccines and autism in children.  Now the opponents had to come up with new claims. After all, the people being vaccinated were mostly adults.

At the local level, school parent councils first intervened in the use of masks because vaccines were not initially available to children. The same group of patents continues to operate and is now acting with the support of Governor DeSantis by restricting anything related to gender and minority groups in school textbooks and teaching.

Hotez explains exactly what happened during the pandemic in a few paragraphs. In the rest of the book, he continues to offer communication as a solution. He himself, although he is mainly a researcher in a large hospital system in Texas, has gone to the media as a defender of science. Hotez suggests a campaign in which prominent figures are hired to communicate with the media. They should be supported by organizations, so that the skeptical would agree to listen to the message for a moment. If the state hires them, they will not be believed.

There is hope: the young people

 I am as tired of the first week of Trump as we all are. Trump got in and his politics are summed up by exclusion. His voters wanted to exclude foreigners. That is happening. Now the process continues to exclude anybody but the most conservative and the wealthiest. Inclusiveness and democracy have no part in the Trump four years.

I had a lecture today from Roman Pryjomko. He has been involved in world politics since the 1990s. His one slide showed some hope. This is a South African, Fasija Hassan, who came into politics demanding in. "We will break down the door." Old men and women were holding all the power. Nelson Mandela quit at 80. He said the octagenarians have no right to govern. They cannot understand change.

If you want change, here is your chance. Quit following news from Facebook and TikTok. Find out what is going on. Get involved. I'll come out put up your yard signs. It is your turn.

A Tipping Point -- History has changed

                          

The first Trump term and now the 2nd will push the US in a certain direction. Trump will not get too much credit from the historians. It will be noted that there was a shift. The voters are not happy and part of it is that the US Constitution is no longer working for us citizens the way it did in the 1900s, even though the Reagan years.

 The result will be a US with a big army and some strength. But no longer keeping military bases all over the world and cruising aircraft carriers. Those were around for the purpose of providing a base in a place where there was not a lot of US support. Middle East, Asia, Russian neighbors. Aircraft carriers do not enter the Baltic as those are now all NATO countries. And they never did. The people with libertarian views saw this patrolling of the planet as waste. Now they will get what they want. Part of the America First idea. A zero-sum game of global scale. What  money goes abroad is away from my pocket. The problems that arise will pile up in the next few decades. Several epidemics will go out of control.

 The other trend that we will see is that red states are on their own. The South will be poor. Even federal highway money will be less and less. The blue states will continue as they did. They produce a lot of income and will take care of their own. They will invent their own healthcare.

 Healthcare will change. Traveling to a different state may require travel insurance, in case you get sick. The states will become little countries. Sharing only the military and the dollar. Federal spending will tighten and will run a lot like the EU. Some states will need to be bailed out from time to time. Catastrophes will need special laws for recovery, each one. Some kind of financial arrangements are made. Somehow the states will get independent economies. Don't ask how, I am not an economist.

ADDED 2-1-25

"It’s been clear for quite a while now that red America and blue America are becoming like two different countries claiming the same territory, with two different versions of the Constitution, economics, and American history. But Babel is not a story about tribalism; it’s a story about the fragmentation of everything. It’s about the shattering of all that had seemed solid, the scattering of people who had been a community. It’s a metaphor for what is happening not only between red and blue, but within the left and within the right, as well as within universities, companies, professional associations, museums, and even families," writes Jonathan Haidt.

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2022/05/social-media-democracy-trust-babel/629369

Trump Explained

One factor that went in favor of Trump was that Trump had formed a bond with tens of millions of voters in 2016. That group was never going to flip. If you had a discussion with a 2016 Trump voter criticizing Trump and explaining how some thing was better under Biden, they were insulted. An accusation about Trump was insulting that voter personally. Harris on the other hand was "just a politician and a DEI hire."

Number one issue was: foreigners. Very well planned straw man from Trump, cats and dogs and all.

There is a general feeling of "the Democrats did nothing" among Trump voters doing poorly. I will address that at the end.

A second thing that has been a factor for decades that leads to people picking someone like Trump is a Foxnews related item. It has been around longer, but Fox has really capitalized on it an repeated it endlessly. It is the belief that the federal government does not work.

Those Trump voters are now anxiously waiting exactly that. Dismantling the federal government. "It does not do anyhing."

A number of things all came together to give Trump just some 1-2% more in a few states: inflation, vaccinations, wokeness and a good number more. It's kind of like the Santa Ana winds promoting fire. They just happened at the right time. Many of those will not be repeated in 2028, so let us look at some factors that DID make him the favorite among MAGA and the undecideds.

Donald Trump is a showman. He liked to be on stage, he likes audiences. He is at home at a Trump Rally. In fact he is still campaigning. He will do this for several months. His major plan to deport all the migrants that he labeled a danger will very likely start in 2025. The cost and details will need to be worked out. Laws covering immigrants have just border partol funding. Not deporting millions.

And he is a con man. None of that was convincing for me. I do not support mass deportations. Since I had no fear of immigrants, I also did not see it as an urgent issue to solve. So how did he create the intense fear of foreigners for tens of millions? Rejection of all culture not your own.

It took me a few books of MAGA type of politics and explanation of the support to learn one thing. The supporters do not see Trump as a politician. Somewhow that makes him on their side. The voters can "smell" a poltician right away, and that is what Harris and Biden are. Politicians who do not say exactly what the voter thinks are on "the other side."

I'm trying to see what 49% of voters saw in a man who is very clearly just an asshole. To most of us. And of his messages, only the hatred and deporting of aliens is a clear messge. How is he able to convince rather simple folk that tariffs on imports will fix their issue with prices? And how did they ever end up liking him? On the other hand Harris was as normal as you could imagine, and they went "I just don't believe she worked at McDonalds" or used some other trivial item to dismiss her.

He talks and talks. Migrants, Hannibal Lecter, tariffs, China. It did not really matter. There were 49% of voters that understood something that he said. It was probably not factual. But it was an outcome they wanted. A true demagogue. Trump appeared genuine to them, and the hatred of certain groups by Trump is genuine. Making fun of liberals appeared somewhat humorous, but these too are real threats. Also the cultural trends have gone quite a ways toward the left in the past few decades. All that needed to be erased too. In the Reagan era this was a big issue, that is why we did not get gay marriage till later.

So part of MAGA era support is for throwing out all the WOKE stuff. TV ads did focus on liberals allowing trans-gender people to identify as such and the schools then at least approving this. In fact, on the local level, schools have been a big issue for ten years. They think schools should teach basic skills. The other stuff, history and so on, cannot address race and gender issues. It was a platform issue due to all that happened during the pandemic. Federal funding for schools is at issue. It may be a lot for poor states. Other states fund themselves.

His opponent was relatively unknown. As VP she could not claim that she personally did some presidential deed. Biden was in on it. The voters also look at a candidate and immediately form a gut feel. The few people I talked to in person had no real feeling for Harris, other than a couple of them noted that "she sounds like a politician."

Voters are not able to make any statistical or financial estimate of anything they are deciding on. If Trump said something often enough, it was taken as the probale outcome or truth on any matter.

Trump also took credit for several things Biden or Obama did. I still hear MAGA folk repeating the thing about Child Tax Credit. That was 2021, not Trump.

Turning real threats such as climate change into conspiracy theories also made the MAGA folk almost a club. They now proudly say things out loud that they were afraid to. This also includes racism. "I'm never going to call a man in a skirt a woman."

And there are a good..half?...of people going to rallies that absolutely love Trump. For "shaking up things." For owning the libs. Woman in Milwaukee on Jordan Klepper video. In the video she has cackling laugh over it. "He showed them." And "he is one of us." Paraphrasing from a few minutes.

Biden did none of that, a few speeches here and there. But he was so in the back ground, so presidential, that in this social media world it looks like he did nothing. Fentanyl deaths are down under Biden, but nobodyd said a word about it this year.

Apart from Trump himself, the hatred of government produced the Trump cult. This is a decades old phenomenon.

One more aspect of being disgruntled is that the voters believe the "Democrats have done nothing for me." Biden actually improved healthacare costs and support. But I have to admit that despite ACA, the health care is still a mess in the US. The Democrats have done their best. But lobbyists are always there. Let us see how Trump does with that, but the promise is only to cut ACA. He intends to cut corporate tax. That will do absolutely nothing for MAGA folk. A few will lose some tax benefits, none will gain any.

The economy: Trump promised to "fix" the economy. That will not happen with tariffs. The tariffs might bring some jobs, but lose some. He was going to make things affordable. Well, they will be, once wages catch up with inflation. Prices will not come down. Nothing to do with Trump. It is just how inflation works.

Democrats

The collection of strawman issues the Trump dumped on democrats is largely false. There is a tiny bit of truth about  "the Democrats did nothing" that MAGA folks claim. Income disparity is large. This is the result of Democrats being unable to tax the wealthy. The income of the lower middle class is largely dictated by corporations which now run the country, no matter what party is in power. Democrats could offer regulated healthcare and safety nets. The income itself is by coporate standard. The support of corporations during the pandemic did almost nothing to you the worker. Both parties are resposnible. Trump was never the solution.

The European economy is such that you do not pay much for education and can get better jobs and earn a nice living. You are more independent while working. But as you retire, they are much the same as us. Life there is not so much about collecting wealth.

Democrats

We have a good number of young congress people that speak out about real issues and live in mostly blue districts. Those people are in the news often. AOC, Maxwell Frost, Jasmine Crockett and others.

But not all Democrats are as outspoken and will not discuss the Second Amendment much. And then there is the economy. Trickle down does not work, but voters are always confused and turned off when you bring up taxation. Benefits are easier to discuss. But even there, bring up benefits that everybody would get. Independent voters do not care much about Medicaid, for example. Just something they would need when they are old and poor.

The complaint about Democrats not doing anything for the working class may be true, but on the other hand voters have given them very slim majorities. Social Security reform (actually simple: tax higher income) cannot be done. Compare that to a Republican win. Social issues and scare tactics got Trump elected. The result is giving more power to corporations and the rich. This happens over and over, every GOP president and under Clinton. It is just inching year after year to extreme capitalism. They dictate many national policies now. The Supreme Court is also on their side now. Just a rubber stamp to strip down "big government."

Repeal of their own ACA healthcare by congress and replacement by extreme profit making insurance plans is one more thing that the MAGA voters voted for. Employers will still have some control of insurance gotten through them.

The other thing that rules politics is money. Many Democrats are forced to be rather centrist. Not their personal view, but they may be in a district that would go to the GOP if they did not have big money to spend in campaigns. To get the votes and the money (big corporations, lobbies) they are closer to the center. They can hold leftist views on social programs but taxing the rich is another matter.

Republicans

I have tried to summarize the election, indpendents, MAGA folk and Trump in a number of posts. To simplify things, let us look at just actual Republicans.

The general principles are:

1 government is bad, taxes are bad

2 if we have some programs that people could benefit from, the majority will be ripping off the honest tax payer. Entitlements are for lazy Democrats.

3 Science is bad, because Democrats run funding to it. Plus many things there clash with our beliefs, the Bible. There are no vaccinations in the Bible.

4 We have to keep some millitary. This is because the vast population of the world is not like us. They do not look like we do and think like we do. Keep them out. And the poor as well. We have our own poor.

5 To get rid of anything Democrats started, just cut funding. If it results in some disaster, blame them. Bring back minimal funding a year later in a quiet way. No news on this!

6 If there is some service the federal government does well, we must stop it. We do not want to give them ideas. BECAUSE:

7. Every problem from city to state to the federal level is better solved by the FREE MARKET. Privatize everything.