The Economy and Presidents

Presidents are usually blamed for a bad economy, but never get credit for a good economy. Inflation in particular is blamed on presidents. The current one was due to the pandemic, and was world wide.

Jobs, ecomomic growth and so on are calculated and tabulated. They are used in election ads.

Obama won two elections. I think he won the second one in that we had recovered from the disasterous Bush recession and healthcare was taken care of. But he was not making any waves past the first two years.

Now we are in a democratic term. Inflation did happen. Big corporations, two or three of whom control any particular product category (phones, diapers, toilet paper, baby food) fix prices. A smaller player (10% of the market) could sell at a lower price. But could never sell enough to make  a difference. 

Would they hesitate to raise prices? No. It will be blamed mostly on the current president. They want the republican elected, so that he can reduce corporatre tax. Once he is elected, will they reduce prices? (After their taxes are cut). No. Corporations never lower prices.

Corporations have paid 20-30% tax in recent times. It is apparently worth the trouble to buy as many senators and presidents as you can for even 5%. And then also have someone like Trump who defund the IRS so they can't collect tax.

So Trump does seem to be able to funnel money and manipulate people. His understanding of the economy for the rest of us is poor. He does not understand tariffs and balance of trade, for example. And he rarely does anything for you or me. At the end of his term he insisted on signing the covid checks. I don't think he would approve those again. Corporations were bailed out and will be again.

How does the voter figure out what is going on? They do not. They respond to prices going up, but never follow how much their salary goes up at the same time. Luxury good prices go up almost immediately when inflation starts. Small snacks at the gas station go up more than a bag of flour. Voters note a few things, ones they buy most often. Voters also do not remember very well how they were financially four years ago. It's just not something that can be measured by the consumer very well. If all the people around are complaining about prices, they conclude they were better off a few years ago.

The human mind is somehow guided by rules of thumb to make a decision in all everyday things. It it is not really set to collect all kinds of data to make that decision. If you are shopping, you just remember the previous time you bought a similar item. Most of us decide by the minimal infomation on hand. You look at the items on the shelf. Maybe check the Amazon price. A credit card allows many to overpend when shopping. You only realize you overspent when the bill arrives.* When you have a good liar like Trump repeatedly tell them they are worse off, they begin to believe it. Whatever the voter believes about the economy under Trump or Kamala, it is based largely on gut feel. There is no rational mechanism needed.

(*On line banking does allow better control than before.)

Some more economy comments at the end of my newer entry:

https://esapolitics.blogspot.com/2024/09/its-still-low-information-voter.html

OCTOBER 14th

NYT polls now show Hispanics and Blacks are moving to the right. Somehow elitism and a misunderstanding of presidents and economies (the incumbent is always blamed) led to race being less important than class and current economic situation. Possibly also shortage of housing.

A part of the morning letter (David Leonhardt):

We can do this!

Trump is handling this badly. I don't think he knows what to do. He is preaching doom and gloom. The lighter material in his stand up is well worn insults. Who on earth would want to hear ten rallies of that?

Contrast this to Harris. I still can't say she is super at being charismatic and I did not like her speech back in 2020 debates and primaries. But Kamala will have a pretty good chance of convincing people that we are not screwed. After the pandemic and the post pandemic jerks and fits in the running of the world and our country, she is the first one to announce that we are done with that. Done with Trump, Biden sent to retirement. We have a good future. We can do this! (I am not the only one interpreting it this way, several  news people have said the same all day).

Social Media vs Facts (the facts are boring)

 The way people get info from media (CNN, MSNBC etc) on line and social media shatters everything to little bite size thing that you react to. Fox News is full of the clips that "prove" illegals are doing awful things.

The problem with all that is that you are not getting actual facts. Crime is down, fewer migrants crossed the border in 2024 than 2023. Some thing have not changed. Police still treat black people badly and are likely to shoot those that ask for help.

Where do you get real data then? Pinker wrote this book that shows the picture that Trump is painting is completly wrong.

The book is full of data, even graphs and tables. The world (well, the USA) is not more dangerous now. Government is not after you. Science is not out to get you.

The migrants are not invading. Rapist migrants are not hiding behind every tree in the park. There probably are more migrants housed somewhere in NY City now than under Trump. But we had a pandemic then.

This may be of some use to people that do not follow news or read anything of this sort (people do not read books anymore, they are too busy poking their phone). The MAGA people will not respond to this either. They have made up their mind and anything that does not back the MAGA dogma must be a conspiracy.

Kamala and Joe. If not Joe, then Kamala.

Trump would claim a win if the Democrats start looking for a new candidate. After the debate disaster, there seems to be a consistent message. Biden will run, as well as he can. If something happens betwee now and election, we get Kamala. That is the only message we need to send out. It shows strength.  The politcs and 2025 plan are exactly the same. The ten or so politicians that are speaking out are just making Democrats look chaotic at this point. Within a week or two, the switch to Kamala may come about. The problematic part is getting a VP in a short time. That will need to be a neutral choice, to make Kamala the more important part of the choice.

                             

ADDED 7-21

We all knew where it was going. Harris is likely (90%) the candidate. Vice presidents are usually named in August at the convention.

My prediction: a white man. Someone that will not put her in his shadow.

Trump and Biden will have a debate in a week. Alpha male and a career politician.

Trump got the last word in a coin flip. My prediction for Trump's concluding speech: "If you don't elect me, that will be the end of our great nation."

In the debate, about ten times, will be "the 2020 election was stolen."

Trump is not an idiot

There was a point to running for president. Trump can collect funding for his lawsuits. In fact most of the RNC money is flowing into accounts paying the lawyers. It does not even distinguish federal and state cases. A lawyer is a a lawyer.

Trump was worried for a moment about sentencing.

But then his mind turned to fundraising. Based on "they cheated me, send money." And "they could send me to prison for 100 years!" The MAGA base is a third of the Republicans. And after that Trump's thoughts turn to revenge.

MAGA folk and freedom

 Polls indicate that Trump has wide support among his voters, some 40% of the vote. He had that support at least three years as president. Why? He didn't do much for MAGA people, or anyone rgular. Only for the rich. And Putin.

Well, the answer is freedom. Maga folk do not want the government to do anything. In fact the federal government should just print money and keep a military. And maybe that FAA. It should be safe to fly. But all other regulation slows down enterprize. Since there is no global warming and even other parts like the EPA do not really "do" anything, leave it all to the states.

There is a problem then with patents and innovation. The government runs the patent office. But MAGA folk have no sympathy for the drug industry for instance. Make cheaper drugs!

They have no idea a drug company would not invest tens of millions in a cancer drug (they pay for all the hospital studies, for example) unless they could patent it and charge you a $500 000 a year. Or your insurance company. Which is...mostly...regulated too. By Obamacare law. You can no longer sell an insurance policy that covers nothing and denies every claim.

There are many modern conveniences that we take for granted but are only made possible by some control from the federal government. Also, a lot of safety in work and play is under state and federal guidance.

So this freedom element is something that is still floating around and affecting polls. Ever since Reagan planted the seed to hate governmnet as the meddling "regulation" we did not need. MAGA folk may not have voted at all before. Or answered polls. Now they can support Trump by 6% over Biden. Trump who never built a wall and bever kept back illegals. If he had, there would be no platform to run on. Abortion is gone, can't run on that anymore.

Other aspects of Trump the president were viewed in the same simplifying way. Trump was a better leader in the world! Why? Because he simply told other leaders what to do. Pay us for NATO! They did not*, but it is simply this attitude they want to hear. Make them foreigners suffer! We are not their piggy bank.

* NATO is not a fund. We do give arms to nations, but mostly non NATO countries.

Think Like an Evangelical

Fetuses are babies. Those Democrats just do not know how to take responsibility for their actions. You can have 7 babies and still have a career on the Supreme Court. What is your problem?

You can just leave the baby at a fire station!

The problem...getting back to politics...is that abortion is pretty much removing anything from the uterus. The fetus could be dead and the woman has to carry it 9 months as things currently stand.

Perhaps just being on the Supreme Court and a mom did not prepare them for all pregnancy situations? Maybe a pregnant woman a doctor could better decide these things? Too late. The Supreme Court decided. States, and maybe Congress?...can better decide this for you.

Independents: I'm voting for someone else!

 You are? First of all, your polled number is just about how selfish you are. But I hope you are selfish enough and go buy donuts and coffee instead of voting in November. Because the election is important and we Democrats know it. It's not an election that will accommodate you with your special choices for a leader.

I was addressing the independents there. The Trumpsters are still 88% behind their hero, who will stumble into the election a broken man. He has almost nothing left as any political goal. Merely revenge. He will take care of that the first year. But with a congress that will not play along.

Let's make sure that does not happen. Show up to vote! Vote for the old man. He has 4 years left in him. Kamala will never be president.

An Election Like Never Before

We have never had an election like this. Never have two men who represent the major parties and who both were presidents for a term run against each other.

The role of social media is greater than ever before, and so is misinformation. It puzzles me that so called independents show up to vote with so little information. It might just be a news item a week before the election. 

The other factor that is unusual is the divisiveness. There are people on the left who are somehow unhappy with the economy. It could be just home  prices and other issues of your personal economy. Reluctantly they will vote for Biden. 

Trump on the other hand is promising "tremendous growth. " You will be so well off you don't even need your Medicare and Social Security. What if you are 75 and all your income IS social security? Other than that, Trump is against evil government and will eliminate as many departments as possible.

And of course, we have nerver had a presidential candidate under criminal indictments.

The divisiveness leads to polling that says Biden is unpopular(55%) but Trump is even more unpopular (60%). The latter should actually be closer to the truth. He did very little as president other than cut taxes. He was poor at foreign policy. I think his plan is not to have much to do with other leaders. All the effort in the first year would be to dispose of illegal migrants.

Because of the unusual setup, polling has been rather meaningless so far. And I think only the more angry responders were among the ones that replied to the polls. Polls in battleground states through the summer are the only ones with any meaning.