I know, and the media knows, that the election will be decided by people that really don't care about elections or politics. Yet, there must be some way to reach them. These people will not watch the debate. They certainly can choose based on a very unconscious gut reaction.
Kamala has to get to the 3% over Trump level (arrow) to safely win the battleground states. There, PA is the key. Polling there is not telling us much. She may still win at 2%, but there will then be recounts. We want to avoid those due to GOP manipulation of ballots.
So what will happen after the debate? This sort of a boxing match now. Kamala has to get a few hard punches at Trump. He has to be suffering and give the appearance of a loser on the little information that trickles through to the low information voter. Mainly through social media but also through their friends. They will get the general impression of the state of Trump. This is maybe the FIRST TIME in 12 years that there is a good chance to make Trump look like a loser. And make it stick.
(I may add a poll to this post a week or two after the debate.)
Other than two candidates, voters also base their voting on two things:
1 how they feel the economy
2 the vague "country is going in the wrong direction."
That second one is pretty much why they always want a NEW president, every four years. Here we have the problem of separating Kamala from Biden.
As for the economy, the voter may well be right in deciding that the party in power is responsible for the government part of the economy. The normal economic cycles are a fuzzy concept to them. But the facts do not really get to the voter, and there is a lag time of up to a year to see any affect the current administration has on the economy. Working class will only remember that "Biden tried to forgive student loans for those college folks."
