The US House and Senate

Nothing terribly exciting or new this time. I am just reviewing the recent past with the US Congress. Out here in the prairies nothing much changed in 2010 other than the few Democrat congressmen lost in the middle of the country and further West. In 2008 in some of those states the odd Democrat got in on the tails of Obama.

Nationwide by 2008 George Bush was unpopular and had a bit of a wild presidency as first terrorism and then wars in Afghanistan and Iraq happened. Going into the 2008 election, Obama was wildly popular. When this happens, a lot of people show up to vote and the winning party gains seats. For two years, lots of things happened. This included a bailout and the healthcare act. For whatever reason, he was unpopular in just the right areas (much like Trump was popular in 3 or 4 crucial states) that the Republicans gained 63 seats in the house. Obama was left an ineffective president, as Congress blocked most of his acts. They even blocked his Supreme Court nominations. This was the House from 2010 elections onward.

The seats were 242/193 after the 63 seat change. The Tea Party was active in this period. The independent voters were somehow impressed by them. Some voters, on the other hand, were voting purely for racist reasons. They showed up again to vote for Trump, because not voting for Hillary was continued punishment for Obama’s party. Some also resented having to buy health insurance.

The Senate (100 senators) only changed by 6 seats in the 2010 elections. The nature of the Senate is just that, as only a third of the Senators are up for election every two years. It does not change as fast as the House, where the congresspersons all must run every two years. The Senators are also able to act more freely, as two terms is quite significant, 12 years, and perhaps they do not run for a third term. Or usually a fourth. They can vote on their principles the last term. Of if the state is always red or blue they can freely hold extreme views. They do not care about election funds at that point. It also is very hard to get senators to change their views at times, and many votes end up close, within two points, with the vice president casting the deciding vote.

The Senators represent the whole state. Congress districts vary wildly, for instance near St Louis Missouri, you have the urban areas which include areas like Ferguson. You end up with representatives at the extremes, such as the Freedom Caucus. Senators are more likely to be moderates, whichever party they are from. However, very Republican states may send Senators that have extreme views on things such as abortion. It is in fact the principle on which the pedophile Roy Moore is currently running.

Back to the 2010 election and the map: Will this type of swing happen in 2018? That may not take place, as the people voting for Trump are stubborn and may want to see Trump achieve more of “small government.” But these days people are not as patient as 20 years ago. Somewhere between 2018 and 2020 there will be some events that will quickly turn against Trump. A tipping point, some event or even a single politician can do this. It could be the Wisconsin Democrat running against Paul Ryan, it could be anyone. It will definitely be lack of coal mining jobs etc. that were promised.

But much of the GOP future depends on Trump. If Trump ends up in a situation where a normal politician would resign, the 2018 election will go badly for the GOP Congress. They may keep the Senate to 2020.