Monday, November 9, 2020

How Much trump are we here? It seems about 55%

The 2020 election and the individual states

In the prairie, and the high plains, the low population states like North Dakota and Wyoming went wildly for Trump:

Then going Eastward, Trump falls to the 50s in Nebraska and Iowa:


Iowa was no more Trump backing than Ohio this time. If you were to look at counties in those states, you would see that the ones that contain medium size cities went for Biden. In fact Omaha gave one electoral point to Biden. I live in a county that went 50/50 for Trump/Hillary, now going slightly Better, 53% Biden. Out here people seem to not care for the federal government. Especially rural people see the state take care of most things. What do we need the feds for? A US highway or Interstate goes nearby. Some of these states send more money in to the government than they get back. Property taxes are not popular either, and there is endless debate on how to raise revenue for the state. It went badly for Oklahoma when they kept lowering the taxation on oil and gas drilling. (See Rachel Maddow's Blowout book). Texas gave 52% to Trump, Oklahoma much more.

So going South, Trump support goes up to that 65%, higher than in Texas. Comparing to a state in between, Kansas is much like Nebraska, but is going in the Democrat direction. It's urban population is growing. Though Democrats did poorly overall, and did not gain any congressmen in the plains states.


Missouri is similar to its neighbor Kansas, clearly still in Republican country. It is only when you have a really big city like Chicago that the Democrats win over Republicans.

Notes on 2020 election in general, support for Democrats and GOP

The election was on Trump in general, but the red states prevailed in keeping the senators and no major changes took place, outside of the Georgia senate races to come in January.

The Trump supporters were a hard core 40%, another 40% strongly hate Trump. Voters who vote Republican only amount to 40% as there is a large block of independents. Therefore Trump disapproval has been steadily over 50%, and it was 55% in July for various reasons. Black Lives Matter and the coronavirus effort have been the main drivers. Yet, turnout did not reflect the 55% to 42% approval to disapproval. The election was decided by 5.3 million voters. This only amounts to a mere 3.5% of the ones that showed up to vote. Many people voted for Trump even if they disapprove of his handling of the presidency. One can take this in many ways. There is a group that actually think government (and the president) should do not much. Even in a pandemic. Capitalism will solve everything.

Turnout is poor, normally, in the younger voters. Many voters past age 50 are conservative. In this election, young people and African Americans did turn up to vote. But the excitement was all on getting rid of Trump, and ten days after the election he is still getting all the attention. The young folks do not seem to have much effect on the party machine, the grip of Republicans on battleground states and any future direction of the country. Democrats lacked a strong message for change. The battle between the middle of the road Biden supporters and the Sanders AOC wing is still ongoing. It seems we are addressing healthcare and social issues in baby steps. And the reform in police that people were expecting can only happen with co-operation at the state level.


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