Thursday, December 28, 2023

Is there a way forward past Trump?

Republicans are stuck with some Trump policies. They cannot lose their voters because they disagree with Trump. Ukraine is a good example.

If we end up with Trump, some America First issues will change quickly. Most of them domestic issues. The change in foreign policy will be much slower. The US military is still somewhat independent of the president.

If we end up with Nikki Haley, we will see a quicker exit out of the Trump era. Pew has run the poll. There is still a lot of anger which Trump whipped in 2016 and which had kept Trump himself going. But the country will only see revenge under Trump. Haley is our way out of this. Not really commenting on any of her political views, she just appears more normal next to Trump. This may turn against her in the middle of the primaries. DeSantis dropped out and more of the extreme voters will go from him to Trump than to Haley.

The story ran December 14th. The headline had to do with a dislike for compromise. Trump certainly will be exactly that. He will decide on money going to foreign countries and even NATO. The NATO issue is more to do with our bases abroad. Trump wanted to completely pull out of South Korea. "We are not their piggy bank." In other foreign policy matters Trump will simply tell leaders what he will do. He does not discuss with leaders.

Trump voters are not entirely in support of ideas that the GOP brought up, so they are pretty much focued on the candidate and not the issues. Trump is trusted to do something about the border. Foreign policy is not something they think much about. More than half the voters overall think foreign policy is important. It came up in the 2022 election, long before the current Israel mess.

Among Republicans, those with college degrees and those over 65 have ideas that match Nikki Haley. There is no difference between men and women supporting Trump, but more men support Haley than women. Those with high school only do not support Haley.  Those supporting Haley are the group likely to leave the president slot blank when electing, if Trump is the candidate. 

Republicans that have college degrees have no major problem with Biden as leader. The economy is doing well, and again...these are the people who have 401K plans. Personal issues are very important to the wealthy and upper middle class.

Abortion was not a major factor for Republicans in 2022. The independents and Democrats will have to show up in polls with that issue throug 2024. Partly it will end up on state level refendums votes. Those will help turnout. The issue is not off the books yet, and may get Biden the win.

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