Number one issue was: foreigners. Very well planned straw man from Trump, cats and dogs and all.
A number of things all came together to give Trump just some 1-2% more in a few states: inflation, vaccinations, wokeness and a good number more. It's kind of like the Santa Ana winds promoting fire. They just happened at the right time. Many of those will not be repeated in 2028, so let us look at some factors that DID make him the favorite among MAGA and the undecideds.
Donald Trump is a showman. He liked to be on stage, he likes audiences. He is at home at a Trump Rally. In fact he is still campaigning. He will do this for several months. His major plan to deport all the migrants that he labeled a danger will very likely start in 2025. The cost and details will need to be worked out. Laws covering immigrants have just border partol funding. Not deporting millions.
And he is a con man. None of that was convincing for me. I do not support mass deportations. Since I had no fear of immigrants, I also did not see it as an urgent issue to solve. So how did he create the intense fear of foreigners for tens of millions? Rejection of all culture not your own.
It took me a few books of MAGA type of politics and explanation of the support to learn one thing. The supporters do not see Trump as a politician. Somewhow that makes him on their side. The voters can "smell" a poltician right away, and that is what Harris and Biden are. Politicians who do not say exactly what the voter thinks are on "the other side."
I'm trying to see what 49% of voters saw in a man who is very clearly just an asshole. To most of us. And of his messages, only the hatred and deporting of aliens is a clear messge. How is he able to convince rather simple folk that tariffs on imports will fix their issue with prices? And how did they ever end up liking him? On the other hand Harris was as normal as you could imagine, and they went "I just don't believe she worked at McDonalds" or used some other trivial item to dismiss her.
He talks and talks. Migrants, Hannibal Lecter, tariffs, China. It did not really matter. There were 49% of voters that understood something that he said. It was probably not factual. But it was an outcome they wanted. A true demagogue. Trump appeared genuine to them, and the hatred of certain groups by Trump is genuine. Making fun of liberals appeared somewhat humorous, but these too are real threats. Also the cultural trends have gone quite a ways toward the left in the past few decades. All that needed to be erased too. In the Reagan era this was a big issue, that is why we did not get gay marriage till later.
So part of MAGA era support is for throwing out all the WOKE stuff. TV ads did focus on liberals allowing trans-gender people to identify as such and the schools then at least approving this. In fact, on the local level, schools have been a big issue for ten years. They think schools should teach basic skills. The other stuff, history and so on, cannot address race and gender issues. It was a platform issue due to all that happened during the pandemic. Federal funding for schools is at issue. It may be a lot for poor states. Other states fund themselves.
His opponent was relatively unknown. As VP she could not claim that she personally did some presidential deed. Biden was in on it. The voters also look at a candidate and immediately form a gut feel. The few people I talked to in person had no real feeling for Harris, other than a couple of them noted that "she sounds like a politician."
Voters are not able to make any statistical or financial estimate of anything they are deciding on. If Trump said something often enough, it was taken as the probale outcome or truth on any matter.
Trump also took credit for several things Biden or Obama did. I still hear MAGA folk repeating the thing about Child Tax Credit. That was 2021, not Trump.
Turning real threats such as climate change into conspiracy theories also made the MAGA folk almost a club. They now proudly say things out loud that they were afraid to. This also includes racism. "I'm never going to call a man in a skirt a woman."
And there are a good..half?...of people going to rallies that absolutely love Trump. For "shaking up things." For owning the libs. Woman in Milwaukee on Jordan Klepper video. In the video she has cackling laugh over it. "He showed them." And "he is one of us." Paraphrasing from a few minutes.
Biden did none of that, a few speeches here and there. But he was so in the back ground, so presidential, that in this social media world it looks like he did nothing. Fentanyl deaths are down under Biden, but nobodyd said a word about it this year.
Apart from Trump himself, the hatred of government produced the Trump cult. This is a decades old phenomenon.
One more aspect of being disgruntled is that the voters believe the "Democrats have done nothing for me." Biden actually improved healthacare costs and support. But I have to admit that despite ACA, the health care is still a mess in the US. The Democrats have done their best. But lobbyists are always there. Let us see how Trump does with that, but the promise is only to cut ACA. He intends to cut corporate tax. That will do absolutely nothing for MAGA folk. A few will lose some tax benefits, none will gain any.
The economy: Trump promised to "fix" the economy. That will not happen with tariffs. The tariffs might bring some jobs, but lose some. He was going to make things affordable. Well, they will be, once wages catch up with inflation. Prices will not come down. Nothing to do with Trump. It is just how inflation works.
