Heading into the 2025 disaster of the Trump II era

The earlier post expressed my disappointment at voters in my state. It was not so much that they would go for Trump a second time, it is that they full well knew he will be close to a dictator. About the only thing holding him back is the federal court system and the states themselves. Those can maybe guarantee a fair 2026 election. We can still hang on to some first amendment rights. But any federal worker resisting Trump now or in the past (Vindman) will be prosecuted.

The somewhat low numbers of voters for Harris are actually not low. Enough people showed up because it was an important election. Harris got more votes than Trump did in 2016 where he only won by the electoral college. He got 62,984,828.

We may start to think about future elections. But the problem is bigger than message and policy. Some 49% of the voters got very little of the message from Harris. We can only follow the news and see how much of the Trump disaster (guaranteed) can get through to the voters by 2026. The social media and so on dominated in 2024. Facts were irrelevant. But if Trump starts cutting off things people need we may have a chance.

The low information voters showed up in good numbers, even though the total voters were about the same as 2016 and earlier national elections. They got to decide who the president is based on "I'm somewhat worse off than I was in 2020 and I have no idea about the economy, really." They do not quite understand inflation. Young voters do not recall inflation in their lives and the rest sort of forget what happened in 2008 or the Reagan era. We had inflation. My first mortgage was at 13% under Reagan. What happens after inflation is that the wages slowly creep up so that you can keep the economy running. The voter does not notice that.  The prices NEVER come down except some goods that had an issue (eggs...bird flu) or because production was low in the pandemic.

The Pandemic itself ran from the spring of 2020 to about two years later. I talk to Trump voters and they think he bailed them out. He did not. The child tax credit was for 2021, for example. In any case no pandemic type of relief programs will come in 2025. More likely Elon Musk will get tax relief. If the voters think Trump gave them something, they were wrong. Gas prices and eggs, sure, but nothing to do with Trump.

And here we are. Trump has taken this message (a win over Harris by less than 2% and not getting over 50% of the votes) as a mandate from the masses. A good portion of young males voted also to bring down "government excess." Any benefits to seniors or any other group and all that regulation was seen as bad. They even saw vaccines as some evil thing the elites invented. None of them recall the vaccinations they got as a kid.

What Trump will do for a number of things will be impulsive. Woodward in one of his books (War?) located an interview he did with Trump as a NY businessman. Trump discussed buying things. He has a gut feeling and does it. He does not ask for any financial analysis. As president it will all be for show. He will not allow Nippon Steel to buy US Steel. Simply because it will not look good for him.

Trump being so impulsive may lead to unexpected results. He makes personal connections to leaders and this may even lead to China gaining something for four years. Musk has contracts with China for Tesla supplies.

The young males showed up to vote for one thing: Trump. Nothing else on the ballot mattered. Perhaps it sounded cool and strong that this tired old man was going to be dictator for one day.

The middle aged men sit behind him at rallies. One photo had one half in cowboy hats, the other in trump hats. Oklahoma maybe? These are the cult from back in 2016. They will be difficult to approach in any manner. They have an axe to grind with liberals. It will never end. Even as Trump takes away the ACA (they might need it at age 60-65) nothing will change their minds. The only hope we have there is that Trump will not fix the economy. He will not. Inflation may be under control but the workers there will never get the raises to be the equal to the upper middle class. So my guess is that they will never admit being wrong, but will sort of fade out of political activity and voting in 2-4 years. There cannot be another Trump for them. Trump is a lame duck and that will be more and more apparent by 2026. He does not have the strength to carry on much past that, he is not well.

The undecideds, low information voters and so on, that went to Trump in the last few weeks, those people can be brought back in 2026. Or they will stay home. For them the election was a referendum on Biden. Biden got the blame for not bringing America a decent standard of living for the working classes. It was not doable in four years, and the GOP has persisted in blocking major changes. These would require a higher tax for the rich permanently. Then the government would be able to direct things such as housing. Which Harris would actually have tackled.

Immigrants...Trump's big challenge

Trump's MAGA folk have rejected all but white American culture. Immigrants are rejected widely. The ones to be deported are going to be the focus in 2025. This will be a test for MAGA. If Trump succeeds enough with this...deporting say 500 000 in two years (unlikely number, as it will cost and they have to go SOMEWHERE, not clear where) then the MAGA people will show up in 2026 and keep the GOP in power. If Trump fails with that, then they will just say, "oh well, we tried" and tune out from politics.

Sadly, even Latinos already here voted against Harris. One was interviewed by ProPublica. She is in fact illegally here, and she had her two American kids vote for Trump.

MOST CLAIMS NOT TRUE

The claim about government endlessly growing and too big and Ramaswamy and Musk ordered to cut it down was popular for a while. Well, it is not true. It has not grown. It is about 3 million workers. There are a good number of contractors now, also paid for some term in the contract for their work. Those are easier to control year to year.